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Old 03-10-2022, 12:37 PM  
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Lions cutting Trey Flowers
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Old 03-10-2022, 01:20 PM   #31
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Lorenzo Carter and Landon Collins please
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Old 03-10-2022, 01:20 PM   #32
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Sure.

And S > IR

You have to weigh the potential return against the odds of actually getting that.

It's how you calculate the settlement value of a lawsuit. If you have a case with say $10 million in potential damages and a 40% chance of actually winning, you have a case worth roughly $4 million dollars.

If you have a case worth $6 million and an 70% chance of winning, your $6 million case is actually worth roughly $4.2 million (after subtracting the costs of litigation, but now we're going too deep in the weeds).

In other words, the more lucrative case is actually the less 'valuable' one.

In this case you have a DE in Flowers who may be a $10 million player if he hits, but he's 35% likely to be that guy. So he's 'worth' $3.5 million. Whereas in Collins case he may be a $5 million dollar player but he's 80% likely to hit that mark so he's 'worth' $4 million.

Such is my calculus anyway. It's the variation in the figures that creates the question. I'm just saying that when it gets down to it, the latter is the guy I'd rather have with the values that I'm assigning them.
That's fair.

I minimize my fears of injury, though. I figure if I can get him on the field for 50% of the downs this coming season, he'll stay healthy and it'll be a win.
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Old 03-10-2022, 01:22 PM   #33
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You are correct -- he was traded to Indy, who may cut him.
That seems incredibly unlikely. To what possible purpose?

Guy has a base salary of $11 million. Teams would be lining up around the block to throw no worse than a 3rd rounder Indy's way to take on that deal at that cap hit. You could probably get a 2nd out of him.

He'll likely get cut NEXT season. But there's no way they're cutting him this year with $70 million in cap room and no genuine reason to do so.
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Old 03-10-2022, 01:28 PM   #34
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That's fair.

I minimize my fears of injury, though. I figure if I can get him on the field for 50% of the downs this coming season, he'll stay healthy and it'll be a win.
See in our situation I would likely overweight the injury concerns.

I mean it ain't like we have a ton of depth behind him if he's truly broken down.
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Old 03-10-2022, 01:32 PM   #35
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See in our situation I would likely overweight the injury concerns.

I mean it ain't like we have a ton of depth behind him if he's truly broken down.
That’s why you sign another guy and draft one….or draft two. I think the money he’s going to get isn’t going to be enough that we would be out of the running.

But the cost of Collins compared to what we’re going to ask him to do….isn’t worth it.
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Old 03-10-2022, 01:37 PM   #36
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That’s why you sign another guy and draft one….or draft two. I think the money he’s going to get isn’t going to be enough that we would be out of the running.

But the cost of Collins compared to what we’re going to ask him to do….isn’t worth it.
I think Dan Sorensen, when he was good (and really, from about 2016 to 2019 he was quite good when utilized in the sort of capacity I would be looking to utilize Collins) was absolutely worth $4-5 million.

If you got 2016 Dan Sorensen out of him, you wouldn't think that was a damn good use of $4-5 million in cap? I think Collins could easily give you that level of play.
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Old 03-10-2022, 02:38 PM   #37
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I'd throw him a 2 year deal worth about $10-12 million.
absolutely

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I wouldn’t just assume that we lose Ward.

I think he’s the one guy we keep.
I HIGHLY doubt we’re able to keep him. He’s likely going to get paid 10-15m per and has multiple teams interested in him. We aren’t in a position to outbid teams and instead can trust Veach to find the next Ward, Fenton, Sneed,
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Old 03-10-2022, 02:41 PM   #38
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I'm not interested in a safety that struggles in coverage.
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Old 03-10-2022, 02:43 PM   #39
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I'm not interested in a safety that struggles in coverage.
Same here. Get good coverage safeties that are willing/solid tacklers.
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Old 03-10-2022, 02:44 PM   #40
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I'm not interested in a safety that struggles in coverage.
We could just re-sign Sorenson if that was what we were looking for.
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Old 03-10-2022, 02:44 PM   #41
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Teams are too good at identifying matchups like that. You need versatility, no specialization.
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Old 03-10-2022, 02:45 PM   #42
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I'm not interested in a safety that struggles in coverage.
He’s full blown elite as a blitzed and run defender, though.

That absolutely has value, albeit limited.
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Old 03-10-2022, 02:46 PM   #43
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He’s full blown elite as a blitzed and run defender, though.

That absolutely has value, albeit limited.
Find a younger, cheaper guy that has the ability to get better at coverage instead of signing a veteran at more money.
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Old 03-10-2022, 02:47 PM   #44
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He’s full blown elite as a blitzed and run defender, though.

That absolutely has value, albeit limited.
Looking around the AFC, I'm not real interested in defending the run at an elite level right now.
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Old 03-10-2022, 02:52 PM   #45
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Looking around the AFC, I'm not real interested in defending the run at an elite level right now.
I agree. I also wouldn’t be mad if we did bring him in for minimal cost.

Didn’t he play for Spags in NY?
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