George Karlaftis

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Besides the fifth year option, is there a difference in the player taken at 29 or 30 and the guy taken at 45-50 in a normal draft year?

Statistically, yes.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpr...l-draft-picks/

But it does seem that a lot of the study being done on this suggests that the curves are MUCH flatter than conventionally believed. A top 10 pick isn't actually 3 times more likely to succeed than a pick at 30 or whatever the 'draft charts' say.

I think what the 'large numbers' tend to wash out is the value of the QBs taken that high and what they bring to the table over any other position. But when it comes to the other positions? Seems like there's just not much utility in trading way up to attack them.

And that if you believe in the flatter curve, trading back from say 29 to 46 for a 3rd rounder is a no brainer.

For the TL;DR crowd, here's a chart this guy made based on the actual on-field performance of draft picks over the last 20 years or so:



It's just a MUCH tighter gradient.