George Karlaftis

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Not really.

I can't speak directly to how they got it, but I've always said that the 'well it's really just a 2nd round pick' crowd is kinda stupid.

It isn't a 2nd round pick. It's a first round pick. A late first, yes. But it's a first round pick. And folks that try to hand-waive that fact make very little sense to me.

I think there IS some white noise that may drive that a little bit though. 33 is typically going to a bad situation on a bad team. It's also likely a team looking at really high variance players; boom/bust types that will often bust. Whereas that pick at the back of 1 is either made by a very good team looking for a lower variance contributor OR a team that's traded into the round for a very specific target that has slid.

In either event, I think the results are about what I'd expect - a 1st round pick does have more value than a 2nd rounder. And by a not insignificant amount. But ultimately I think it really shows that the tops of these rounds aren't as valuable as we thought and in many ways the 2nd and 3rd rounds are where you can REALLY turn a draft into a mammoth haul.

But that would speak to the team specificity of the actual draft pick. Whoever the Chiefs pick or the Packers pick etc are more likely to be successful because of who they are actually picked by.

From an actual player picked standpoint, the 32 pick isn't different than 33. Circumstances matter more.

If QB's fell and or there is someone willing to come up for a player, do it. Every time.