Study: Trading up in the draft is a sucker's bet

[Consistent1]

Originally Posted by Cochise

There's not as much distance between the #1 and #10 overall picks as there used to be.

If you look at all the #1 overall picks back to the last one that is still active, Manning...

2012 Andrew Luck
2011 Cam Newton
2010 Sam Bradford
2009 Matthew Stafford
2008 Jake Long
2007 JaMarcus Russell
2006 Mario Williams
2005 Alex Smith
2004 Eli Manning
2003 Carson Palmer
2002 David Carr
2001 Michael Vick
2000 Courtney Brown
1999 Tim Couch
1998 Peyton Manning

For the most part, you have "consensus" #1s at the time they were drafted.

Excepting Andrew Luck (too soon to judge), how many of these guys were worth a #1?

Mario Williams is probably the most recent one who delivered on #1-type potential. Eli Manning did, and Peyton Manning did.

That's really it.

I can't agree with this logic. If you are sitting at 9, and need a guy like Luck, you have to give up that 9 and other picks to get him.