Peyton vs. Perfection (Denver vs KC breakdown) MMQB

[Quesadilla Joe]

It's the Game Of The Year so far: the prolific Denver Broncos vs. the stingy Kansas City Chiefs. Can Peyton Manning and company hand K.C. its first loss?

http://mmqb.si.com/2013/11/14/denver...eyton-manning/


This AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs is as good as it gets for football in November. No division rivals have ever squared off with fewer than two losses between them so late in the season. The Broncos (8-1) are scoring an obscene 41.2 points per game, by far the best in the NFL. The Chiefs (9-0) are giving up just 12.3 points per contest, also a league best. As Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton once taught us, something’s gotta give.

Broncos offense vs. Chiefs defense

1. Pressuring Peyton

A hot topic right now is Peyton Manning’s protection. It hasn’t been great in recent weeks, which is to be somewhat expected given that anchor Ryan Clady (IR) has been replaced by Chris Clark. The 28-year-old undrafted journeyman has given up a few critical blind-side hits, though he’s not the only culprit on this struggling line. Right tackle Orlando Franklin also has been caught flat-footed a few times. Manning, with precise pocket movement and rapid progression-read ability, is generally able to overcome shoddy protection. But two bum ankles—plus copious bumps and bruises on his 37-year-old-body—make eluding pressure a taller order these days.

The Chiefs know how to apply pressure. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston give defensive coordinator Bob Sutton the rare privilege of scheming with dynamic rushers from both edges. One of the two almost always faces one-on-one pass blocking. Both might see it frequently at the same time on Sunday night, as Manning prefers to go with a minimum five-man protection in order to have five eligible receivers at his disposal. (This is one reason why running back Knowshon Moreno catches so many short passes.)

Kansas City has been one of the most complex and successful blitzing teams in the NFL this season, particularly on 3rd-and-long when Sutton loves to play dime and send speedy corners and safeties after the quarterback. Though a sizeable chunk of Kansas City’s league-leading 36 sacks have come out of complex pressure packages, don’t expect Sutton to use a lot of them against the Broncos. Most defensive coordinators refrain from blitzing Manning. The Chargers had some success with it, but they only called for pressure in the second half after it became apparent that their defensive backs could not compete with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Kansas City’s defensive backs can challenge those receivers.

2. The Man-to-Man Matchups

The closest any defense has come to slowing Denver was Indianapolis’s, when cornerbacks Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler stymied Manning’s receivers for most of the first three quarters in Week 7. (Injuries to Davis and Butler changed Indy’s fortunes down the stretch.) The Broncos know how to beat man coverage—they’ve mastered barely legal pick plays and intertwined crossing patterns—but they have yet to face a man-coverage defense as sturdy as the Chiefs’. At the same time, Kansas City hasn’t faced an offense with these types of weapons. The following individual matchups will likely determine the outcome of the game:

Outside: CBs Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper vs. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker

Smith is lanky and physical, though he’s been a bit shaky as of late. (Receiver Stevie Johnson was right when he said that Smith’s 98-yard pick-six against Buffalo was “lucky.” Smith was in position to make that interception only because Johnson had juked him so far sideways off the line of scrimmage.) When Smith plays with discipline, he’s one of the best boundary defenders in the game. But if he gets antsy against double moves—something Thomas and Decker perform extremely well—he could wind up in trouble.

On the other side, Cooper, a seventh-round pick of the Niners this past spring, is a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. He has an innate sense for playing both the ball and the receiver in isolated coverage against vertical routes on the outside. He also has good closing quickness when working back to the ball, especially for someone who is 6-2. For all of Cooper’s merits, don’t be surprised if Manning still tests him early. The young corner did get beat twice due to missteps in his press-jam technique in Kansas City’s last game.

Inside: CB Brandon Flowers vs. slot receiver Wes Welker

Since Week 5, Flowers, one of the NFL’s best boundary corners, has been playing the slot in nickel and dime. So far, the results have been stellar. Flowers is a surprisingly good blitzer, and more importantly, he knows how to apply his physicality in the wider spaces that come with playing inside. Most corners, even elite ones, can’t do that. We’ll find out on Sunday whether Flowers really is a slot aficionado. He’s yet to face an inside receiver of Welker’s caliber.

Inside: SS Eric Berry vs. TE Julius Thomas

Berry has transformed from a liability to an asset covering tight ends—though he hasn’t been severely tested except for when he controlled Jason Witten one-on-one in Week 2. The Broncos have the most dynamic tight end in the AFC not named Rob Gronkowski. And their system does a good job getting Thomas open by design.


3. Building Offense

Contrary to popular belief, the Broncos don’t do many complicated things offensively. Instead, they do many simple things really well. One is called “building offense,” meaning they use certain plays early in the game to set up other plays later in the game. Defenders think they’re spotting something familiar, but they’re actually being set up to be exploited. The good thing about being a man-based defense (like the Chiefs) is you’re a less susceptible to this sort of deception because coverage defenders don’t see the ball or route designs to begin with; their focus is solely on their man.

This doesn’t mean the Broncos won’t try to build offense. Instead of doing it with a combination of two or three different routes, they’ll do it on a more individualized basis. We saw a great example of this with Demaryius Thomas scoring two touchdowns at San Diego.





Kansas City’s cornerbacks must concentrate on getting stops, not interceptions. If they start cheating against Denver’s routes, they’ll get burned by a twist.


Chiefs offense vs. Broncos defense

There’s a perception that Denver’s defense is iffy, maybe even porous. That’s only because its two bad performances happened to coincide with the team’s two most-watched games: Week 5 at Dallas, and Week 7 at Indy. Take out those contests and this group is allowing a respectable 21.6 points per game.

The Chiefs lack the same offensive firepower that the Cowboys or Colts have. Their system hinges on Jamaal Charles being able to turn the outside corner in the ground game, and converting a few screens into first downs. Their passing game is limited, mainly because Alex Smith is committed to doing whatever it takes to not lose games. So far he’s been successful in this regard, but in order for the undefeated Chiefs to be genuine Super Bowl contenders, he at some point will have to actually make plays to win a game. This doesn’t mean making a gutsy play late in the fourth quarter; it means having the fortitude to consistently take advantage of big-play opportunities.

Smith is nowhere close to doing that right now. The TV camera angles that get beamed into living rooms across the country might show Smith not throwing interceptions. What those camera angles don’t show, however, is him missing wide-open receivers at the intermediate levels. They also don’t show him abandoning plays before receivers have finished their routes. We can see this, though, thanks to the All-22 film.






As this game probably will prove, Kansas City’s defense can’t keep holding opponents to under 20 points while also creating points of its own each week. Kansas City’s offense (i.e. Smith) will have to get sharper.

[MileHighFish]

Sounding like Denver will employ a lot of 2 tight end sets in order to try to slow down the KC rush. Doing so means Welker will spend a lot of time watching from the sidelines but Denver is going to do everything they can to protect Manning. I am seeing a lot of check downs to Ball/Moreno as well as a healthy does of quick screens to let the WR's try to make something happen.

[htismaqe]

Adam Schein did a great job of summing up the post I made a couple of days ago when I first came back.

Smith really only cares about one thing: winning. And that's something he's done plenty of lately, compiling a 29-6-1 mark in the last 36 NFL games he's started. Smith told me about the quick bond he formed with new coach Andy Reid; it began with their first phone conversation, when Reid quizzed Smith on a play. (Smith, of course, had the answer Reid was looking for.) These two are attached at the hip, seeing the game the same way. You can call Smith a game manager or question his arm. I call Smith a winner, someone who doesn't make mistakes with the game on the line. This is a guy who simply will not turn over the ball, will not give Manning extra opportunities. Smith -- reflecting the Chiefs as a whole right now -- oozes confidence.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

And given where all these guys were drafted, it's pretty disappointing.

I'm especially irritated by Allen.

Fisher I actually do see some signs of life in. I've seen improvement and I've seen clear technical flaw could be fixed pretty easily with reps.

Allen, OTOH, just stinks on ice. He looks awful.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

He won with defense. As he has always done.

He is the luckiest son of a bitch alive.

So the defense is how he completed 70% of his passes last year?

Again, explain to me what was 'deceptive' about Smith's 7.5 YPA average over his final 2 seasons in SF?

[MileHighFish]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

It's a combination of things. We switched blocking schemes this offseason and our 1.1 RT was a walking abortikn for about the first seven weeks of the season. So despite spending shitloads of high picks on all five of our starting linemen, they're still young and learning a new system. Maybe they're out of scheme or still learning, who knows, but they suck at pass protection and often can't clear out any lanes for Jamaal to run as evidenced by his shitty YPC this season (which, coincidentally, is actually right around league average- he's that amazing).

So basically you have a running game that struggles to get going until the 4th quarter and a QB that's forced to run scared often and stare down the rush, feeling phantom pressure when there isn't any. Combine that with the fact that Smith has never really been known as a guy to take risks and you have a passing game that basically consists of check downs to backs.

I think Jamaal has more catches than either Bowe or Avery do targets. Something needs to change and as much as Smith pisses me off, I realize that it needs to start with the offensive line.

EDIT: This was a response to MileHighFish

Thanks! Great explanation and I appreciate it. Charles really is amazing and to see him amongst the leaders based on how the line has played speaks volumes to his talent. Can't imagine what he would do behind a "good" o-line (don't mean that in a disrespectful manner in any way either).

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So the defense is how he completed 70% of his passes last year?

Again, explain to me what was 'deceptive' about Smith's 7.5 YPA average over his final 2 seasons in SF?

It was deceptive as an indicator that he was throwing the ball down the field.

That's typically what people believe when they see a high YPA.

Milkman and I both regard YPC as a statistic that's far more indicative of what a QB is doing on the field.

Thank you, come again.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by MileHighFish

Thanks! Great explanation and I appreciate it. Charles really is amazing and to see him amongst the leaders based on how the line has played speaks volumes to his talent. Can't imagine what he would do behind a "good" o-line (don't mean that in a disrespectful manner in any way either).

We've had the debate here a million times. What could Jamaal have done with that All-World line that Priest had back from 01-04? Dude averaged 6.4 YPC for an entire season with Matt ****ing Cassel, it pisses me off thinking what he could have done with Peyton at QB.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

It was deceptive as an indicator that he was throwing the ball down the field.

That's typically what people believe when they see a high YPA.

Milkman and I both regard YPC as a statistic that's far more indicative of what a QB is doing on the field.

Thank you, come again.

You've been beating the hell out of the YPA drum this season. When did you switch to YPC?

[MileHighFish]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

We've had the debate here a million times. What could Jamaal have done with that All-World line that Priest had back from 01-04? Dude averaged 6.4 YPC for an entire season with Matt ****ing Cassel, it pisses me off thinking what he could have done with Peyton at QB.

...or anybody other than Cassel

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by MileHighFish

Sounding like Denver will employ a lot of 2 tight end sets in order to try to slow down the KC rush. Doing so means Welker will spend a lot of time watching from the sidelines but Denver is going to do everything they can to protect Manning. I am seeing a lot of check downs to Ball/Moreno as well as a healthy does of quick screens to let the WR's try to make something happen.

That ain't happening... he's way to valuable in that offense.

Welker is #2 in receptions, #3 in yards and tied for #1 with 9 TDs. There's no way that guy is spending a lot of time on the sidelines. If anything, he's more valuable in this game because of what he can do in the short quick passing game to keep the defense honest and to move the chains.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

You've been beating the hell out of the YPA drum this season. When did you switch to YPC?

I have not.

I have quoted both as indications of Alex's ineptness.

And I've been harping on his YPC as a 49er since the trade.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'm especially irritated by Allen.

Fisher I actually do see some signs of life in. I've seen improvement and I've seen clear technical flaw could be fixed pretty easily with reps.

Allen, OTOH, just stinks on ice. He looks awful.

Having seen both Asamoah and Allen play in college, it's difficult to see them struggle so much. They were both excellent college players. Of course, Allen isn't playing his more natural position...

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

You've been beating the hell out of the YPA drum this season. When did you switch to YPC?

When it served his purpose.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

When it served his purpose.

They both serve my purpose.

Alex sucks in almost every way.

[MileHighFish]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

That ain't happening... he's way to valuable in that offense.

Welker is #2 in receptions, #3 in yards and tied for #1 with 9 TDs. There's no way that guy is spending a lot of time on the sidelines. If anything, he's more valuable in this game because of what he can do in the short quick passing game to keep the defense honest and to move the chains.

I hope not but that's what I have been hearing. Know it's just talk at this point but would make some sense depending on how much pressure KC is able to put on Manning. Denver won't sacrifice Manning's health for a couple 8 yard slant routes. It will be interesting to see what they do as I believe they (Denver) has to be throwing a few wrinkles into the offense this week to slow the KC pass rush. Maybe it will be "ground and pound"?