Life Which of these things will happen in the next fifty years?

**Rain Man** · 11-26-2014, 05:47 PM

Item 3: A war producing 20 million deaths.

I voted no on this one.

To produce 20 million deaths, I think you have to have two big combatants going all out and throwing haymakers at each other. Unless someone launches nukes, we're talking about a sustained war that involves divisions and lots of people in uniforms and tanks and planes.

First, I think that type of war is going out of style. It's expensive and generally unpopular. It's better to find some angry minority group and arm them, or do cyberwar on their infrastructure, or stuff like that. I don't think anybody wants to get into a big massive land war these days.

Second, there aren't a lot of candidates for a war that produces 20 million casualties. At that scale, I can probably name the only real candidates:

India vs. Pakistan
Russia versus Ukraine or other former Soviet Republic
Russia versus China
Russia versus NATO
Iran versus somebody, but I don't know who. Maybe whatever Iraq becomes.

That said, there are other possibilities, such as:

Israel gets pushed to the wall and nukes most of the surrounding countries
Maybe Nigeria or Burma or Ethiopia gets into a really protracted fight against a neighbor.

The most likely probability would be some very long and protracted civil war in some big third-world country that goes on for 20 years and kills a bunch of people each year. But it would take a really big country to lose 20 million internally. Maybe Nigeria or Vietnam or Mexico with the drug wars. But there aren't that many countries that could lose 20 million without something unprecedented happening.

I think it's either a major nuclear war, which I think is unlikely, or a protracted civil war, which isn't likely to happen in a big enough country to produce that many casualties.

View Poll Results: Which of these will happen within 50 years? Check all that apply.
A human celebrates his or her 130th birthday	37	29.13%
A mile-high skyscraper is built somewhere in the world	14	11.02%
A single war produces more than 20 million deaths	36	28.35%
A third party holds the US Presidency	36	28.35%
A U.S. president is assassinated	52	40.94%
Anti-gravity is brought into everyday use	10	7.87%
Artificial intelligence routinely conducts media interviews	23	18.11%
At least one dinosaur will be alive	10	7.87%
At least one human will have their brain transplanted into a cloned version of their own body.	17	13.39%
Brick and mortar stores will cease to be the major means of purchases in the U.S.	53	41.73%
Chiefs win a Super Bowl	79	62.20%
Cure for cancer (Late-stage survival rates > 97%)	29	22.83%
Earthquake of Magnitude 8.3 or greater strikes somewhere in the continental U.S.	73	57.48%
Evidence of a pre-Ice Age civilization is discovered	12	9.45%
Faster than light travel is achieved (human transport)	8	6.30%
Flying cars	23	18.11%
Food shortages lead to permanent ban on consumption of meat in at least one country (population > 10 million)	23	18.11%
Households manufacture all necessary goods themselves, purchasing only raw materials and plans for 3D printing	14	11.02%
Human sets foot on Mars	66	51.97%
Humans can communicate directly with at least two species of animals.	14	11.02%
Implantable computer/phone/internet devices are in 80+% of Americans	33	25.98%
Large scale nuclear bomb dropped or launched in a hostile act	40	31.50%
Major epidemic kills 10% or more of the US population	18	14.17%
Major epidemic kills 25% or more of a nation’s population (nation > 10 million people)	23	18.11%
Major meteor strike or other interplanetary event kills 1 million or more people	5	3.94%
One-world government is established	14	11.02%
Prenatal selection of certain traits will be possible for the middle class (e.g., height, nose shape, eye color)	46	36.22%
Peaceful resolution to the Israel-Arab conflicts is achieved	1	0.79%
Permanent cessation of Islamic extremism and terrorism	2	1.57%
Permanent human presence on Mars	5	3.94%
Permanent human presence on the moon	18	14.17%
Poverty is eliminated in the U.S., based on minimum standards of living that are achieved	5	3.94%
Proof of extraterrestrial life is confirmed	35	27.56%
Race is no longer an issue of conflict, contention, or policy in the U.S.	5	3.94%
Robot labor means that humans do not have to work to obtain basic needs (food, clothing, shelter)	13	10.24%
Robot labor provides household servants for the middle class (maid, butler, etc.)	26	20.47%
Small-scale radiation dirty bomb set off in hostile act	60	47.24%
Space tourism becomes a feasible option for the American middle class	33	25.98%
The US Senate OR House becomes majority female	8	6.30%
The world ends as described in the holy book of your choice	6	4.72%
Time travel to the future (more than one day)	1	0.79%
Time travel to the past (more than one day)	2	1.57%
U.S. adds at least one new state from territory that is not part of a current state	32	25.20%
U.S. is no longer the world’s most powerful nation	70	55.12%
U.S. no longer needs petroleum products as energy source	25	19.69%
U.S. splits into two or more countries	10	7.87%
None of these things will occur within 50 years.	1	0.79%
Poll fail. We will invent time travel, so the future will cease to exist.	5	3.94%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 127. You may not vote on this poll

11-26-2014, 05:47 PM	#10
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-732449 VARSITY	Item 3: A war producing 20 million deaths. I voted no on this one. To produce 20 million deaths, I think you have to have two big combatants going all out and throwing haymakers at each other. Unless someone launches nukes, we're talking about a sustained war that involves divisions and lots of people in uniforms and tanks and planes. First, I think that type of war is going out of style. It's expensive and generally unpopular. It's better to find some angry minority group and arm them, or do cyberwar on their infrastructure, or stuff like that. I don't think anybody wants to get into a big massive land war these days. Second, there aren't a lot of candidates for a war that produces 20 million casualties. At that scale, I can probably name the only real candidates: India vs. Pakistan Russia versus Ukraine or other former Soviet Republic Russia versus China Russia versus NATO Iran versus somebody, but I don't know who. Maybe whatever Iraq becomes. That said, there are other possibilities, such as: Israel gets pushed to the wall and nukes most of the surrounding countries Maybe Nigeria or Burma or Ethiopia gets into a really protracted fight against a neighbor. The most likely probability would be some very long and protracted civil war in some big third-world country that goes on for 20 years and kills a bunch of people each year. But it would take a really big country to lose 20 million internally. Maybe Nigeria or Vietnam or Mexico with the drug wars. But there aren't that many countries that could lose 20 million without something unprecedented happening. I think it's either a major nuclear war, which I think is unlikely, or a protracted civil war, which isn't likely to happen in a big enough country to produce that many casualties. __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
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