Chiefs 6-10 Team with Chase Daniel - Page 7

Prison Bitch · 12-28-2014, 05:15 PM

Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests.

We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance.

While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.

Prison Bitch · 12-28-2014, 09:58 PM

Russell Wilson didn't have to beat anybody last year.

BigCatDaddy · 12-28-2014, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Russell Wilson didn't have to beat anybody last year.

Have you watched both play and made a conclusion to which guy you want on your team?

Stats only tell part of the story. It's best to use a combination of "Moneyball" and "Scouts Eye" IMO.

milkman · 12-28-2014, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Russell Wilson didn't have to beat anybody last year.

Alex Smith is a mediocre game manager.

Russel Wilson is a dynamic game manager.

Prison Bitch · 12-28-2014, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

Alex Smith is a mediocre game manager.

Russel Wilson is a dynamic game manager.

Those terms aren't things I can quantify so Ill concede that.

Numerically they're eerily similar and Alex was a muffed punt from going to the SB in San Fran and a joke defense from beating Indy last year.

milkman · 12-28-2014, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Those terms aren't things I can quantify so Ill concede that.

Numerically they're eerily similar and Alex was a muffed punt from going to the SB in San Fran and a joke defense from beating Indy last year.

Not getting into that muffed punt argument again.
That's just a dead end.

But let me know when Russel Wilson is as non productive on 3rd downs in big games as Alex Smith was in that one.

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 12-28-2014, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Daddy Williams

Bullshit! You can become a Bowe Groupie with me! We'll stalk the poor, unsuspecting bastard-fans of whatever franchise elects to accept his greatness!

I can't do that. Football is a game that I literally can't just turn emotion on for a team.

Red Dawg · 12-28-2014, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

Not getting into that muffed punt argument again.
That's just a dead end.

But let me know when Russel Wilson is as non productive on 3rd downs in big games as Alex Smith was in that one.

Let me know when Smith has an actual OL and nfl talent at WR.

milkman · 12-28-2014, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tuckdaddy

Let me know when Smith has an actual OL and nfl talent at WR.

2011

ChiefsCountry · 12-28-2014, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tuckdaddy

Let me know when Smith has an actual OL and nfl talent at WR.

Read his post again dipshit.

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 12-28-2014, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Read his post again dipshit.

right?

Prison Bitch · 12-28-2014, 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

Not getting into that muffed punt argument again.
That's just a dead end.

But let me know when Russel Wilson is as non productive on 3rd downs in big games as Alex Smith was in that one.

I'd guess the first playoff game vs NO last year where he turned in a 9-18 103 yard 0TD dud.

Hootie · 12-28-2014, 10:26 PM

Chase Daniel is a less good version of Alex Smith, is anyone arguing otherwise?

Hootie · 12-28-2014, 10:26 PM

is someone trying to argue that Alex Smith is the same as Russell Wilson as well ? Because that is reeruned.

Eleazar · 12-28-2014, 10:27 PM

There are two ways to look at it. One is that Alex Smith's QB rating is "only" a 93. The other is that his QB rating is somehow a 93 playing in front of one of the worst offensive line groups in the league.

I think we'd all agree that, statistics aside, last year Smith was quite a bit more effective when the offensive line was significantly better.

Daniel is definitely more willing to take risks with the ball and he is good at extending plays with his feet - that will work for a Sunday or two, but eventually you have to stand in the pocket and make multiple reads and execute throws when under pressure in the league if you are going to be a starter in the NFL.

I don't think Daniel's two starts show us that he can do that, obviously. It does show us that he is a quality, veteran backup and his job is probably secure with the team for the immediate future. I think he should be restructured to be more cap friendly, but he should be retained as our #2.

GoChargers · 12-28-2014, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Read his post again dipshit.

He needs to brush Smiff's nuts out of the way of his screen first.

12-28-2014, 05:15 PM
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	6-10 Team with Chase Daniel Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests. We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance. While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.
Posts: 87,025

12-28-2014, 09:58 PM	#91
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	Russell Wilson didn't have to beat anybody last year.
Posts: 87,025

12-28-2014, 10:26 PM	#102
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	Chase Daniel is a less good version of Alex Smith, is anyone arguing otherwise?
Posts: 56,356

12-28-2014, 10:26 PM	#103
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	is someone trying to argue that Alex Smith is the same as Russell Wilson as well ? Because that is reeruned.
Posts: 56,356

12-28-2014, 10:27 PM	#104
Eleazar Beyond the Rapids Join Date: May 2003 Location: Langley, VA Casino cash: $-370000	There are two ways to look at it. One is that Alex Smith's QB rating is "only" a 93. The other is that his QB rating is somehow a 93 playing in front of one of the worst offensive line groups in the league. I think we'd all agree that, statistics aside, last year Smith was quite a bit more effective when the offensive line was significantly better. Daniel is definitely more willing to take risks with the ball and he is good at extending plays with his feet - that will work for a Sunday or two, but eventually you have to stand in the pocket and make multiple reads and execute throws when under pressure in the league if you are going to be a starter in the NFL. I don't think Daniel's two starts show us that he can do that, obviously. It does show us that he is a quality, veteran backup and his job is probably secure with the team for the immediate future. I think he should be restructured to be more cap friendly, but he should be retained as our #2.
Posts: 80,659