***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Andoverer]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Imagine spending your entire life raising a kid and this is how they turn out. https://t.co/SyKI5SvEcp

— Chelsea Handler (@chelseahandler) March 19, 2020

Yeah I think he's the useful idiot establishing himself as the 'canary in the coal mine' role

[Fish]

Not a great outlook, from some of the local KC doctors...

Kansas City could see Seattle-like numbers of COVID-19 cases in two weeks, doctors warn

The Kansas City metro area’s coronavirus outbreak could be as severe as Seattle’s within two weeks, public health experts warn.

“This isn’t a maybe. It is coming,” Dana Hawkinson, medical director of infection prevention and control at The University of Kansas Health System, told reporters Thursday morning.

As of Thursday, the Pacific Northwest city reports 1,187 positive cases and 66 deaths. The Kansas City metro area has experienced 27 cases and 1 death.

“That’s why it is so vitally important to continue to have adherence to public health guidance,” Hawkinson said.

If you can, stay home. If you’re sick, self-quarantine. Don’t meet in large groups. Wash your hands, cover your mouth with your elbow when you cough and keep a healthy distance from other people. That’s the message that needs to be getting to the general public, Hawkinson said.

How long Americans can expect to hunker down depends on how seriously they take the virus right now, Hawkinson said. There’s no COVID-19 vaccine and the likelihood of re-infection isn’t well understood at this time.

“We’re at the beginning of the curve,” Hawkinson said. “We haven’t even started having that many positive patients. What we have is a whole lot of rule-outs and a whole lot of people coming in contact with positive patients.”

Hawkinson said he’s been monitoring the situation in Seattle and preparing for that level of infection in the Kansas City area.

“You can feel what’s going on on the ground (in Seattle) and you can look at that and you could say they are two weeks ahead of us,” Hawkinson said.

“This is what it’s going to look like in Kansas and Kansas City in two weeks,” he said. “And everything you can try to do to try and flatten that is what you have to do.”

And if it gets as bad as Seattle, Kansas hospitals won’t have enough supplies to go around.

“If we don’t blunt this virus, we don’t have enough,” said Jill Chadwick, director of KU Medical Center’s media relations.

“We don’t have enough vents, and we don’t have enough beds. And not just at our hospital — but every hospital,” she said.

A testing shortage and backlog of test samples make it impossible to accurately report how many people in Kansas have been infected.

More people want tests than the medical facilities, state labs or private labs can handle, chief medical offiicer at KU Medical Center Steve Stites said.

“We just don’t have enough test kits,” Stites said.

Johnson County, which includes the Kansas City suburbs of Overland Park, Shawnee and Olathe, has the most cases of COVID-19 in Kansas with 16 as of Thursday. There are eight cases in Wyandotte County.

With a shortage of testing capacity, Kansas should assume the virus is spreading more rapidly than tests indicate. The public health response should be the same whether people are being tested or not: If you have symptoms, self-quarantine two weeks, Hawkinson said.

“You just have to assume. You have to stay home as if you have it,” Hawkinson said.

[neech]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

There is absolutely no doubt that the Federal government will need to enact a "Freeze" on mortgages, rent, utilities and loans.

Otherwise, we're going to see a massive amount of civil unreset, which may lead to far more deaths than a "contained" virus.

So does that mean we still have to pay say the utility company if we get a pass on a couple months of those bills?

[DaneMcCloud]

As for the "Food Supply Chain", I went to two Ralphs grocery stores this morning.

I was at the Studio City Ralphs at 8:00am, which is when they're opening now. They had plenty of fresh fruits and vegetables but the refridgerated section, whether it was yogurt, milk, egg whites and cheese were completely empty. They were also completely out of any type of lunch meat, whether turkey or baloney, hot dogs, salami, sandwich cheese, etc. The freezer section was completely empty, outside of ice cream and frozen treats. No veggies, fruits, microwave meals, frozen pizza, etc.

I got to the second Ralphs, located in North Hollywood, around 8:45ish. Same with the fresh fruits and vegetable, frozens, etc. but they did have three packages of hot dogs, so I grabbed them all. There was no meat in the case, other than a couple of nasty looking steaks.

I spoke with both managers and asked when they expect lunch meats and was told "We don't know. I could be today, tomorrow or next week".

Also, no toilet paper at either location but there were paper towels.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by neech

So does that mean we still have to pay say the utility company if we get a pass on a couple months of those bills?

Unless it is a legit freeze them saying they won't turn things off isn't super helpful, that's like saying yea you can still use it now but in a few months that 2k bill won't pay itself.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Fish

Not a great outlook, from some of the local KC doctors...

Kansas City could see Seattle-like numbers of COVID-19 cases in two weeks, doctors warn

The Kansas City metro area’s coronavirus outbreak could be as severe as Seattle’s within two weeks, public health experts warn.

“This isn’t a maybe. It is coming,” Dana Hawkinson, medical director of infection prevention and control at The University of Kansas Health System, told reporters Thursday morning.

As of Thursday, the Pacific Northwest city reports 1,187 positive cases and 66 deaths. The Kansas City metro area has experienced 27 cases and 1 death.

“That’s why it is so vitally important to continue to have adherence to public health guidance,” Hawkinson said.

If you can, stay home. If you’re sick, self-quarantine. Don’t meet in large groups. Wash your hands, cover your mouth with your elbow when you cough and keep a healthy distance from other people. That’s the message that needs to be getting to the general public, Hawkinson said.

How long Americans can expect to hunker down depends on how seriously they take the virus right now, Hawkinson said. There’s no COVID-19 vaccine and the likelihood of re-infection isn’t well understood at this time.

“We’re at the beginning of the curve,” Hawkinson said. “We haven’t even started having that many positive patients. What we have is a whole lot of rule-outs and a whole lot of people coming in contact with positive patients.”

Hawkinson said he’s been monitoring the situation in Seattle and preparing for that level of infection in the Kansas City area.

“You can feel what’s going on on the ground (in Seattle) and you can look at that and you could say they are two weeks ahead of us,” Hawkinson said.

“This is what it’s going to look like in Kansas and Kansas City in two weeks,” he said. “And everything you can try to do to try and flatten that is what you have to do.”

And if it gets as bad as Seattle, Kansas hospitals won’t have enough supplies to go around.

“If we don’t blunt this virus, we don’t have enough,” said Jill Chadwick, director of KU Medical Center’s media relations.

“We don’t have enough vents, and we don’t have enough beds. And not just at our hospital — but every hospital,” she said.

A testing shortage and backlog of test samples make it impossible to accurately report how many people in Kansas have been infected.

More people want tests than the medical facilities, state labs or private labs can handle, chief medical offiicer at KU Medical Center Steve Stites said.

“We just don’t have enough test kits,” Stites said.

Johnson County, which includes the Kansas City suburbs of Overland Park, Shawnee and Olathe, has the most cases of COVID-19 in Kansas with 16 as of Thursday. There are eight cases in Wyandotte County.

With a shortage of testing capacity, Kansas should assume the virus is spreading more rapidly than tests indicate. The public health response should be the same whether people are being tested or not: If you have symptoms, self-quarantine two weeks, Hawkinson said.

“You just have to assume. You have to stay home as if you have it,” Hawkinson said.

So his basis for that is simply assuming a worst case scenario. It's a good idea, but the headline is kind od meh

[wazu]

Originally Posted by Fish

Not a great outlook, from some of the local KC doctors...

Kansas City could see Seattle-like numbers of COVID-19 cases in two weeks, doctors warn

The Kansas City metro area’s coronavirus outbreak could be as severe as Seattle’s within two weeks, public health experts warn.

“This isn’t a maybe. It is coming,” Dana Hawkinson, medical director of infection prevention and control at The University of Kansas Health System, told reporters Thursday morning.

As of Thursday, the Pacific Northwest city reports 1,187 positive cases and 66 deaths. The Kansas City metro area has experienced 27 cases and 1 death.

“That’s why it is so vitally important to continue to have adherence to public health guidance,” Hawkinson said.

If you can, stay home. If you’re sick, self-quarantine. Don’t meet in large groups. Wash your hands, cover your mouth with your elbow when you cough and keep a healthy distance from other people. That’s the message that needs to be getting to the general public, Hawkinson said.

How long Americans can expect to hunker down depends on how seriously they take the virus right now, Hawkinson said. There’s no COVID-19 vaccine and the likelihood of re-infection isn’t well understood at this time.

“We’re at the beginning of the curve,” Hawkinson said. “We haven’t even started having that many positive patients. What we have is a whole lot of rule-outs and a whole lot of people coming in contact with positive patients.”

Hawkinson said he’s been monitoring the situation in Seattle and preparing for that level of infection in the Kansas City area.

“You can feel what’s going on on the ground (in Seattle) and you can look at that and you could say they are two weeks ahead of us,” Hawkinson said.

“This is what it’s going to look like in Kansas and Kansas City in two weeks,” he said. “And everything you can try to do to try and flatten that is what you have to do.”

And if it gets as bad as Seattle, Kansas hospitals won’t have enough supplies to go around.

“If we don’t blunt this virus, we don’t have enough,” said Jill Chadwick, director of KU Medical Center’s media relations.

“We don’t have enough vents, and we don’t have enough beds. And not just at our hospital — but every hospital,” she said.

A testing shortage and backlog of test samples make it impossible to accurately report how many people in Kansas have been infected.

More people want tests than the medical facilities, state labs or private labs can handle, chief medical offiicer at KU Medical Center Steve Stites said.

“We just don’t have enough test kits,” Stites said.

Johnson County, which includes the Kansas City suburbs of Overland Park, Shawnee and Olathe, has the most cases of COVID-19 in Kansas with 16 as of Thursday. There are eight cases in Wyandotte County.

With a shortage of testing capacity, Kansas should assume the virus is spreading more rapidly than tests indicate. The public health response should be the same whether people are being tested or not: If you have symptoms, self-quarantine two weeks, Hawkinson said.

“You just have to assume. You have to stay home as if you have it,” Hawkinson said.

Holy crap. if this is true that means that .01% of our population could have this thing, with 5% of those .01% having worse than minor symptoms. CLOSE ALL BUSINESSES INDEFINITELY.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

10,000 max? I mean if that's the case the shutdown is a huge mistake.

I honestly cant come up with a justification for this craziness when you look at how fast H1N1 spread and we didn't come close to doing this to our country.

You asked me how many current cases do I think exist we don't know about. That's my answer to that.

If you're asking me how many cases we'll end up having, I hope with the actions we've taken, that we'll end up with a few hundred thousand.

Again, H1N1 had a much lower fatality rate than SARS-CoV-2 has.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by wazu

Holy crap. if this is true that means that .01% of our population could have this thing, with 5% of those .01% having worse than minor symptoms. CLOSE ALL BUSINESSES INDEFINITELY.

That would be 32,700 people in the entire country dude.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

I have no idea, but I'd guess in between 5 and 10,000. We'll never really know for certain.

Originally Posted by loochy

500k to 1 mil

And ultimately that's the problem.

All I know is that I'm fully preparing for public pandemonium once we REALLY kick testing into gear across the country. If we see a giant spike in numbers (which we very well may), people are going to lose their shit.

I'm cautiously optimistic by the numbers coming out of Washington though. Once thought to be the epicenter of the outbreak, they are reporting fairly low confirmed cases as the days go by.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by neech

So does that mean we still have to pay say the utility company if we get a pass on a couple months of those bills?

There are a few senators making these types of propositions and from my understanding, it's just a 90 Day "Freeze" to help people make it through the next few months.

Also, from my understanding, the Federal Government is currently speaking with the banks and utility companies in which they would actually fund all of the various sources, so there would be zero burden on the American public until further notice.

I'm seeing friends lose their jobs or being furloughed, laid off, etc., people with high paying jobs (not including the Entertainment business, which is all but completely shut down - no filming, etc.), so I'd imagine it's hurting 90% of the country or more.

If the Feds want the public to comply with all of these "quarantine" style orders, they'll need to act quickly.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by loochy

So his basis for that is simply assuming a worst case scenario.

He's the medical director of infection prevention and control. Maybe his assumptions are worth noting.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Donger

You asked me how many current cases do I think exist we don't know about. That's my answer to that.

If you're asking me how many cases we'll end up having, I hope with the actions we've taken, that we'll end up with a few hundred thousand.

Again, H1N1 had a much lower fatality rate than SARS-CoV-2 has.

But according to your numbers isn't nearly as contagious because it would be about 975,000 cases behind H1N1 in the same timeline when we did no lock down.

You get what I am saying yet?

[displacedinMN]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

As for the "Food Supply Chain", I went to two Ralphs grocery stores this morning.

I was at the Studio City Ralphs at 8:00am, which is when they're opening now. They had plenty of fresh fruits and vegetables but the refridgerated section, whether it was yogurt, milk, egg whites and cheese were completely empty. They were also completely out of any type of lunch meat, whether turkey or baloney, hot dogs, salami, sandwich cheese, etc. The freezer section was completely empty, outside of ice cream and frozen treats. No veggies, fruits, microwave meals, frozen pizza, etc.

I got to the second Ralphs, located in North Hollywood, around 8:45ish. Same with the fresh fruits and vegetable, frozens, etc. but they did have three packages of hot dogs, so I grabbed them all. There was no meat in the case, other than a couple of nasty looking steaks.

I spoke with both managers and asked when they expect lunch meats and was told "We don't know. I could be today, tomorrow or next week".

Also, no toilet paper at either location but there were paper towels.

Ralph's at 10901 Ventura Blvd, Studio City, CA 91604???
I have been there. Saw the UPS driver from Legally Blonde when I was there.

[DaneMcCloud]

I don't know why you guys continually spew out numbers.

No one knows anything on a larger scale because testing just isn't available and ER's aren't admitting people without severe symptoms because there just aren't enough beds.