***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

That is all I was saying. That is why I put forth a scenario then asked a question. I am not really interested in defending the scenario itself, even though I have just now.

I am interested in the answer IF it played out as I put forth.

I will ask again...

What if the following scenario played out...

On Monday a significant number of doctors nationwide start prescribing HCQ+azithromycin to patients in hospital who have tested positive for Covid-19 (those who are severe/critical).

Our supplies of both hold up (this is actually likely given how readily available both are) The US also ramps up production (and taps into strategic stockpiles and military supplies) to meet any upcoming need.

After 6 days, 80%+ of all treated people are virus free.

At what point would you support lifting all the mandated restrictions and just issuing advisories and continuing Federal support for testing and recovery (both economic and medical)?

If this plays out, I can not see ANY excuse for not lifting restrictions by April 1.

Absent a miracle cure like you laid out we will be on lockdown for several months.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Absent a miracle cure like you laid out we will be on lockdown for several months.

The point is not the "miracle cure". The point is the scenario. What is your answer to the specific scenario laid out?

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by arrowheadnation

Like every other plague or outbreak in history, infections and death will not keep growing exponentially. It's impossible. Both will inevitably reach a point where they start to trend down and things return to normal. It is the measures we take to speed up that downturn that will tell how quickly normal returns. It's all explained much more eloquently in the linked article below. This is a good read. No need to read it all. There is a lot you already know, but definitely worth your time...and who doesn't have time to kill right now.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894

This article has been taken down at least for now. It's under investigation.



Here's a rebuttal of the arguments in the article:

A lot of people are sharing out this piece by @aginnt on #COVID19 that I think is profoundly misguided

It combines a pile of statistics (fine) with a very poor policy argument that I'll rebut here, in a threadhttps://t.co/vfisP3N3ez

— Will Chamberlain (@willchamberlain) March 21, 2020

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

That is all I was saying. That is why I put forth a scenario then asked a question. I am not really interested in defending the scenario itself, even though I have just now.

I am interested in the answer IF it played out as I put forth.

I will ask again...

What if the following scenario played out...

On Monday a significant number of doctors nationwide start prescribing HCQ+azithromycin to patients in hospital who have tested positive for Covid-19 (those who are severe/critical).

Our supplies of both hold up (this is actually likely given how readily available both are) The US also ramps up production (and taps into strategic stockpiles and military supplies) to meet any upcoming need.

After 6 days, 80%+ of all treated people are virus free.

At what point would you support lifting all the mandated restrictions and just issuing advisories and continuing Federal support for testing and recovery (both economic and medical)?

If this plays out, I can not see ANY excuse for not lifting restrictions by April 1.

The key to the hypothetical is that you've found a cure with virtually unlimited supply.

If that plays out, then sure, lift all restrictions.

That said, you have a better chance of bottling unicorn farts at this point in time.

Even if you decrease the rate of infection by a couple of points (currently at +32% increase today), you're going to have twice as many people in the US infected with the Coronavirus by this time next week than China had throughout their entire outbreak.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by 007

Everyone will just say they are on the way to a grocery store

Not even that...

To engage in outdoor activity, provided the individuals comply with
Social Distancing Requirements as defined in this Section, such as, by
way of example and without limitation, biking, walking, hiking, or
running;

There are a few specifics, like how weddings aren't essential... but, overall it's a mess of generalities and exceptions, yet you could get a fine of $50-500 or 1 day to 6 months in jail.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Ok, this is the response I am looking for. This is a game of "what if"... it doesn't really matter if you think the scenario is complete bullshit.

The problem though, is that nobody is going to mass produce this without having any actual proof of what that percentage actually is beyond the current limited results. Or whether there might be some unknown long term issue that results from the untested long term combination of the virus and this application. Certainly not mass produced within weeks without knowing.

[BigRedChief]

First time in history we can save the human race by laying in front of the TV. Let’s not blow this.

/stolen off Instagram

[AustinChief]

For all those talking about our supplies. How many people CURRENTLY in the US are listed as server or critical with Covid-19?

You are telling me we can't treat them all right now with this treatment?

For those who are wondering what the numbers are it is 6 250mg doses of azithromycin and 18 doses of 200mg hydroxychloroquine per patient. (according to the French study)

I'd wager my local Walmart has enough to treat 50 people right now.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

The point is not the "miracle cure". The point is the scenario. What is your answer to the specific scenario laid out?

I’m with you that if there is a way to treat this it should be less important to keep everyone at home but the problem is there is no way they’re going to be able to know this works for everyone in that time. The goal is to not over-tax the health care system since that will lead to a lot of deaths. If the scenario you put out leads to a verifiable way to treat enough people to keep people from over-using the available ventilators/etc then the purpose of sheltering becomes moot.

I would just want to make sure that you can know it works in all the situations and with all the different kinds of cases we’ll be facing before we tell everyone it’s okay to start spreading it again.

Also, if they say 2 more weeks would really inoculate us from future problems I think most would be okay with that. A lot of the pressure on the economy is because we don’t know how long this will last/cost so a drug therapy would be immensely helpful on that front.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Fish

The problem though, is that nobody is going to mass produce this without having any actual proof of what that percentage actually is beyond the current limited results. Or whether there might be some unknown long term issue that results from the untested long term combination of the virus and this application. Certainly not mass produced within weeks without knowing.

You don't need to ramp up azithromycin production by much and hydroxychloroquine production is already being ramped up as we speak.

Right now there is PLENTY in the system that could be used to treat ALL current severe/critical cases in the USA and not even blink. (you may see regional shortages in places like NY but that is a matter of shifting resources, we are talking HOURS not even days)

[Discuss Thrower]

You're wasting keystrokes, bossmang.

[007]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Not even that...







There are a few specifics, like how weddings aren't essential... but, overall it's a mess of generalities and exceptions, yet you could get a fine of $50-500 or 1 day to 6 months in jail.

I don't get the stance on funerals either. What are families supposed to do? Put them on ice?

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

You're wasting keystrokes, bossmang.

Just to be clear, I am not unrealistic about this being a "miracle cure." I am just gauging the current psychology of people regarding the situation. I am seeing an overwhelming negativity that so far REALITY doesn't seem to warrant. Yes, we may see the situation get far worse but we also may find out that this virus has already spread far and wide in the US and we are near peak spread in places like NY.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by 007

I don't get the stance on funerals either. What are families supposed to do? Put them on ice?

Maybe a webinar type thing?

[SupDock]

Guys. We need to talk about this Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin thing. It is out of hand. It all stems from this study that came out today. The study design: Comparative viral eradication on day 6 between HCQ, HCQ + Azithro, and control (not treated) COVID-19 patients. pic.twitter.com/qFZXdTxTwI

— Jason Pogue (@jpogue1) March 20, 2020

So to recap:
1) This study had a lower threshold for "negative" than most and used as less sensitive swab sample
2) There were a decent number (23%) of total HCQ patients who were not eligible for analysis, but at least five could be considered failures.

— Jason Pogue (@jpogue1) March 20, 2020

2a) These failures could lessen the spread between HCQ and control
2b) These failures would impact monotherapy vs combination therapy (unclear how as they are not described)
3) When correcting for burden of disease/viral load, HCQ and HCQ + AZ look extremely similar

— Jason Pogue (@jpogue1) March 20, 2020