***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Letting a virus run wild is not the answer for all viruses and at this point in time they are taking a cautious approach so it doesn’t get out of control to mitigate loss of life , I understand the economic impact as well , having a viruses run wild could potentially damage the economy as well they are trying to balance the two , in every Country not just yours , some are trying to find a political angle in this But I don’t think Norway or who ever is doing this with an American political agenda behind it.



What would you recommend Pete , a referendum? Flip a coin?

Dont get pissy because you had a bunk argument.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[POND_OF_RED]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Post-marketing surveillance will bring forth rare issues you won't see in even large RCT. However, it's pretty simple to me: number needed to treat vs number needed to harm vs the fatality rate of the disease.

If the NNT is lower than NNH and the NNH translates to a lower percentage than the fatality rate for my cohort, I'd get the vaccine.

That’s not really simple because you’re not giving a timeline needed for research on all of the stats you’re looking for. All of those numbers will be completely provisional for the next few years. When will you be confident enough in those research numbers? Are you saying you’d feel safe if those numbers lined up today to take a vaccine?

[R Clark]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Post-marketing surveillance will bring forth rare issues you won't see in even large RCT. However, it's pretty simple to me: number needed to treat vs number needed to harm vs the fatality rate of the disease.

If the NNT is lower than NNH and the NNH translates to a lower percentage than the fatality rate for my cohort, I'd get the vaccine.

Golly I must be a real dumb ass cause I ain’t got a fricken clue what you just said, but then you already knew that

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by R Clark

Golly I must be a real dumb ass cause I ain’t got a fricken clue what you just said, but then you already knew that

I had to Google it, but it makes sense. (Hamas, correct any of this if I'm off.)

NNT = Number of vaccines necessary to prevent one instance of the illness
NNH = Number of vaccines that result in one case of increased harm to someone who got it

(RCT = randomized, controlled trial)

So basically, if the vaccine is doing more good than harm, it's a positive overall.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by POND_OF_RED

That’s not really simple because you’re not giving a timeline needed for research on all of the stats you’re looking for. All of those numbers will be completely provisional for the next few years. When will you be confident enough in those research numbers? Are you saying you’d feel safe if those numbers lined up today to take a vaccine?

The studies will have a follow up period. In the case of a dose of an inactivated virus, I'm not terribly concerned. Were it attenuated, a short follow-up would be sufficient as long as cGMP were followed in its production.

It's not a chronic medication and vaccines are remarkably safe for inactivated viruses. Assuming there is nothing novel in its synthesis, the RCT data will give you sufficient info.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I had to Google it, but it makes sense. (Hamas, correct any of this if I'm off.)

NNT = Number of vaccines necessary to prevent one instance of the illness
NNH = Number of vaccines that result in one case of increased harm to someone who got it

(RCT = randomized, controlled trial)

So basically, if the vaccine is doing more good than harm, it's a positive overall.

Bingo. Sorry for the jargon. I'm less verbose on my phone.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Dont get pissy because you had a bunk argument.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Yes I am human I do get frustrated sometimes, not very often though so congrats Pete your long term commitment to ignoring the facts has managed to do what very few other people have done.

[jdubya]

So I`m due for my second round Shingrix vaccine.....all good? Or should I wait a bit lol

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by jdubya

So I`m due for my second round Shingrix vaccine.....all good? Or should I wait a bit lol

You can get it from anywhere to 2-6 months after the first shot. Just be nice to the RPh and wear a mask.

[POND_OF_RED]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

The studies will have a follow up period. In the case of a dose of an inactivated virus, I'm not terribly concerned. Were it attenuated, a short follow-up would be sufficient as long as cGMP were followed in its production.

It's not a chronic medication and vaccines are remarkably safe for inactivated viruses. Assuming there is nothing novel in its synthesis, the RCT data will give you sufficient info.

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Bingo. Sorry for the jargon. I'm less verbose on my phone.

Can you break it down one more time for us simpletons without a medical degree and give us an estimate on how long you think a vaccine will take best case scenario. I’m reading so many people thinking we can have one by the fall but I just don’t see how.

[limested]

Originally Posted by jdubya

So I`m due for my second round Shingrix vaccine.....all good? Or should I wait a bit lol

Shingles suck ass so get it. I had a mild case and it made me want to kill myself.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by POND_OF_RED

Can you break it down one more time for us simpletons without a medical degree and give us an estimate on how long you think a vaccine will take best case scenario. I’m reading so many people thinking we can have one by the fall but I just don’t see how.

I have no better idea than you do. I don't think fall is reasonable just from a scale perspective. Oxford isn't even in human trials yet.

Correction: Oxford is now in Phase I trials.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by limested

Shingles suck ass so get it. I had a mild case and it made me want to kill myself.

I had it across a nerve line in my face. Had to go to an ophthalmologist several times a week for several weeks to make sure it hadn't made its way to my eyes.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I have no better idea than you do. I don't think fall is reasonable just from a scale perspective. Oxford isn't even in human trials yet.

They say it's in Phase I fwiw, but maybe I'm misunderstanding what that means.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technolog...e-monkey-data/

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DaFace

They say it's in Phase I fwiw, but maybe I'm misunderstanding what that means.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technolog...e-monkey-data/

Phase I is human, so I was mistaken. I'd only heard about the rhesus macaques.