***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[jdubya]

Originally Posted by POND_OF_RED

Got tested this morning. Weird feeling, but it’s definitely not as painful as it looks.

4x a year I get a camera scope up my nose that travels all the way to my vocal cords. I figure if I can take that I can handle a Q tip lol.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Donger

Memorial Day weekend traffic at airports was up significantly from recent weeks.

The Transportation Security Administration says it screened about 1.5 million people between Thursday and Monday. That is still about 12.6% of the 12.2 million people it screened over the same period last year.

But those five days also included three days — Thursday, Friday, and Monday — with more than 300,000 people screened. Thursday was the first time since March 23 that the agency has screened more than 300,000 people.

The day with the highest volume was Friday. TSA said it screened 348,673 people that day, still just 12.5% of the 2.8 million people it saw that day last year.

The number of travelers has been climbing in recent weeks as many state and local governments relax stay at home policies.

I saw an article (sorry, can't find a link) that said that air travel is up to about 20 percent of normal now, whereas it was at 5 percent of normal the previous month. And hotels doubled their occupancy rate this month too, though I think they said the occupancy is still only around 30 percent.

[jdubya]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Remember back in the middle of April I told you guys that we would have more than 100,000 deaths and it wouldn't even be close. And that I ever expected 100k before June 1st. Some of you said I was an idiot and disputed the math. I was advising everyone the models predicting 50k or 60k deaths only total was grossly incorrect.

Well, it's May 26th and here we are, 100K+ deaths in USA now.

Nope, dont remember. Sorry

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

"We know that you broke quarantine and ignored health recommendations, so as a result we're going to ask you to quarantine and follow health recommendations."

I agree that compliance may be low.

'Zero Ducks Given'

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Has it changed from the other day when they were saying they thought there would be teams that didn't participate?

Don't know. I know Damian Lillard said yesterday or today he wouldn't play if there was no shot to make the playoffs. I bet quite a few players will decide to do that.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Remember back in the middle of April I told you guys that we would have more than 100,000 deaths and it wouldn't even be close. And that I ever expected 100k before June 1st. Some of you said I was an idiot and disputed the math. I was advising everyone the models predicting 50k or 60k deaths only total was grossly incorrect.

Well, it's May 26th and here we are, 100K+ deaths in USA now.

Something tells me this won't get much play but yes I remember you talking about this and several people were calling you an idiot saying you didn't understand math.

[NewChief]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Remember back in the middle of April I told you guys that we would have more than 100,000 deaths and it wouldn't even be close. And that I ever expected 100k before June 1st. Some of you said I was an idiot and disputed the math. I was advising everyone the models predicting 50k or 60k deaths only total was grossly incorrect.

Well, it's May 26th and here we are, 100K+ deaths in USA now.

But the new talking point is that deaths are being overreported... you know.

My neighbors uncle's grandmother has had the diabetus all her life, and he posted on facebook that she died from her diabetus, and then the coroner came running and said. Ain't the diabetus! It's the Rona!

[POND_OF_RED]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Remember back in the middle of April I told you guys that we would have more than 100,000 deaths and it wouldn't even be close. And that I ever expected 100k before June 1st. Some of you said I was an idiot and disputed the math. I was advising everyone the models predicting 50k or 60k deaths only total was grossly incorrect.

Well, it's May 26th and here we are, 100K+ deaths in USA now.

I see you’re here to boast about provisional numbers. Are you going to address your overreactive opinion that everyone should wear N95 masks even if healthy as well or are you still sticking with this idiotic belief?

Originally Posted by BWillie

Smell can permeate about anything. Particles, at least some of them, get trapped in the mask. Its not fail proof no, but helpful. I think we should open up everywhere and mandate N95 masks. N95 masks will really really mitigate the risk.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Remember back in the middle of April I told you guys that we would have more than 100,000 deaths and it wouldn't even be close. And that I ever expected 100k before June 1st. Some of you said I was an idiot and disputed the math. I was advising everyone the models predicting 50k or 60k deaths only total was grossly incorrect.

Well, it's May 26th and here we are, 100K+ deaths in USA now.

7600 people die in the US each day during a normal time frame/normal year.


1,430/day died due to CovAIDS over a 70 day span.


If it is possible to find out the total deaths during that span we can see what has really happened.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by jdubya

Just heard on the radio that the latest CDC numbers for C19 IFR is 0.26%. 48% of deaths are patients in convalescent and nursing care homes. Just looking at those numbers was it really worth shutting the entire economy down? In other words, if someone were to tell you last fall that this upcoming flu season is going to be almost twice as bad as previous flu seasons, would you expect a full nationwide shutdown?

We've lost 100,000 in two months, and that's with mitigation efforts.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Remember back in the middle of April I told you guys that we would have more than 100,000 deaths and it wouldn't even be close. And that I ever expected 100k before June 1st. Some of you said I was an idiot and disputed the math. I was advising everyone the models predicting 50k or 60k deaths only total was grossly incorrect.

Well, it's May 26th and here we are, 100K+ deaths in USA now.

Nice call man, but Bosschief was pounding the table for 100K+ deaths back in November.

[jdubya]

Just hung up with a buddy in France. France has been 2-3 days ahead of us from the beginning regarding the shutdown processes. When they reduced crowds, we followed in 2 days. When they closed restaurants we did the same 2 days later, etc etc......They opened everything back up May 9 apparently with some restrictions. Everybody is back to work but no longer shaking hands or doing the cheek kiss. Trains and public transportation is up and running but folks sit in every other seat so 50% of normal. People are going to eachothers houses for dinners again but eating outside when possible. I guess we are no longer following their pattern.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Something tells me this won't get much play but yes I remember you talking about this and several people were calling you an idiot saying you didn't understand math.

...

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Where do you come up with this nonsense?

Originally Posted by BWillie

We have 800,000 TOTAL cases. There are still 684,000 cases that haven't concluded yet resulting in EITHER a death or a recovery. There are 43,177 deaths. 72,561 recoveries. Deaths + Recoveries of cases with a result = 115,738. We know that the total cases reported are mostly the significant and more severe cases, so the CFR is much lower than this BUT of reported cases the death rate is 43,177 deaths / 115,738 total cases w/ a result = 37%. (The world rate is 21% of reported cases. Being that we are one of the obese nations of the world with many citizens with comorbidities this makes total sense. Being that we rarely test asymptomatic people & those who are younger experiencing mild symptoms, again this makes total sense)

Since we have 684,000 active cases, if we assume a constant death rate of those cases of 37% that is 255,171 That is probably high and worst case scenario. But even if we assume that at most HALF of the 684,000 active cases will recover (or have recovered and just aren't reported which is a HUUUGE stretch) then that gives us 342,000 active cases. Even if the death rate DECLINES to even 15% (which mind you is way below our current of 37% and 21% world death rate of REPORTED more significant cases) then that puts us at 51,300 more deaths.

This is the bare, bare minimum and best, best case scenario you could EVER hope for with these numbers and that is about 95k deaths. This doesn't take into account ANY new cases being reported. And the assumption that nobody ever gets Covid-19 ever again, and that nobody at home as Covid-19 currently. Which clearly will not be the case. We ALSO know that alot of deaths are slow to report so there are likely many deaths that have occurred that haven't even been reported yet.

With that data we can easily conclude we will eclipse 100k deaths very, very easily. And within the next 45 days even.

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Your numbers are simply way off on the high end on every single speculation. You are using numbers we know right now aren't true like your ridiculous death rate. CFR in known cases is 3-8%. At the high end that predicts 64K deaths and we know its not going to be 8% when this is over.

[jdubya]

Originally Posted by Donger

We've lost 100,000 in two months, and that's with mitigation efforts.

Is there an answer to my question in there somewhere?


On another note, my buddys 91 year old father who has COPD just returned from the hospital after being admitted for 4 days due to being positive for C19 and is now home recovering.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by jdubya

Is there an answer to my question in there somewhere?


On another note, my buddys 91 year old father who has COPD just returned from the hospital after being admitted for 4 days due to being positive for C19 and is now home recovering.

Kick ass.


That's a tough SOB.