Why the hell wouldn’t the Chargers go for it on 4th down in OT?

[PunkinDrublic]

You’re doing better against the Chiefs than anybody thought you would especially with a backup QB. Nobody would fault you if you went for it and it didn’t work out. If I’m a Charger enthusiast, I’d be pissed. That was a gutless call.

[Reerun_KC]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

Probably the higher percentage call. Their defense was playing a lot better than their offense. If they don't convert on 4th down the game is over. It's not like it was crazy to punt.

Dont convert the 4th down, Game over....

Punt, Game Over....

It was a lose lose situation for the Chargers.

THEIR ONLY, ONLY ****ing hope was to get that 4th down and keep the ball and continue on offense. At any point they gave the ball back to KC it was GAME OVER.

So by not going for it, they conceded the game. Its not debatable....

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by PunkinDrublic

You’re doing better against the Chiefs than anybody thought you would especially with a backup QB. Nobody would fault you if you went for it and it didn’t work out. If I’m a Charger enthusiast, I’d be pissed. That was a gutless call.

Yeah but if they went for it and didn't get it you would probably be calling the coach an idiot for trying that.

You can make a case for either decision. I don't think there is a right or wrong answer here. Either way I think they would have lost. They played a great game but ran out of steam. Chiefs are just too talented to lose to Chargers. Id say 9 out of 10 times Chiefs will beat Chargers simply due to Chiefs roster having so much more talent.

I think overall Chargers had a great gameplan. IMO Chargers coaching staff outcoached Reid in this game. They were ready for our quick passes and it took a while for us to adjust.

Chargers lost because of Chiefs talent not because of coaching

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Dont convert the 4th down, Game over....

Punt, Game Over....

It was a lose lose situation for the Chargers.

THEIR ONLY, ONLY ****ing hope was to get that 4th down and keep the ball and continue on offense. At any point they gave the ball back to KC it was GAME OVER.

So by not going for it, they conceded the game. Its not debatable....

It absolutely is debatable.

It's entirely possible they punt and then force the Chiefs to punt, like they had on 5 of the Chiefs previous 7 possessions.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

I just saw a video where they talked about going for it on 4th down, last week I guess. In the NFL it worked out to something like 55%. Obviously distance made a difference, but for this example we don't have to get into that. We can call it 60% or 70% if you want.

Here's the thing: it didn't take into account what team was going for it, or who they were going against, what players were on the field, who was calling the plays offensively and defensively, what the weather was like, or basically anything that would give the situation context. It was just the situation of 4th down by an average NFL team against any average NFL team, basically in a bubble.

At best that provides a kind of guideline; it's not a fact.

in reality the Chargers held the Chiefs well below their per possession scoring average for the entire game, and the field position strategy had been working for them.

Just look at the Chiefs first 7 possessions for the game:

PUNT
PUNT
PUNT
TD
PUNT
PUNT
FG

If you were Lynn, knowing that out of the Chiefs first 7 possessions, your defense had held them to two scores and 5 punts, wouldn't you feel fairly good about your defense being able to force another punt?

Offensively the Chargers run game went from averaging over 6 yards/play for most of the game, to less than 3 yards per play (I think it was right around 2) for their last three possessions in regulation. In fact, there was string of Chargers runs by Ekeler and Kelley that went for less than a yard/carry during their last three possessions. Even Herbert's runs were only averaging about 2 yards/attempt in the final quarter. Spags was figuring it out.

My point being, that situationally in that moment against this team, going for it on 4th down was suddenly not as cut and dried as "well, we have a 60% (or whatever number you want to use) chance of converting."

The situation on the field had changed, Spags had figured out how to put the brakes on their running game.

But the Chargers defensive front was still collapsing the pocket, was still winning that field position battle for the most part, excepting one crazy miracle pass and catch by Mahomes and Hill.

Situationally it was probably the right call. Based on what had occurred during the game, Lynn had about a 60-70% chance of his defense standing tall and getting his offense the ball back, or the game ending in a tie, which for the Chargers would've been almost as good as a win.

And let's be clear: I'm not saying that Anthony Lynn definitely made the right decision not going for it on 4th down in OT. I'm saying I understand why he did it, and I don't have a problem with it.

That is good analysis, but the last 2 Chiefs possessions was TD and FG. If you were playing against Alex Smith, you punt all day long but if you are playing against Mahomes who just led 2 straight scoring drives, yeah I am going for it.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

That is good analysis, but the last 2 Chiefs possessions was TD and FG. If you were playing against Alex Smith, you punt all day long but if you are playing against Mahomes who just led 2 straight scoring drives, yeah I am going for it.

But look at that scoring drive.

Rush for 1 yard.
Mahomes INT. Called back for off-sides penalty.
INC
11 yards to Watkins, who leaves the game for injury.
22 yards to Hardman
2 yards to Kelce.
THEN a 54 yard pass that no other QB on Earth can make, caught and scored by maybe the only receiver on Earth that has a chance to make that play.

There was a lot of luck that went into that score. Okay, maybe 'luck' isn't the right word, but it's not like the Chiefs were just marching down the field and it was a given that they'd score a TD on that possession. It took a once-in-a-lifetime type of pass and catch to score that TD.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

But look at that scoring drive.

Rush for 1 yard.
Mahomes INT. Called back for off-sides penalty.
INC
11 yards to Watkins, who leaves the game for injury.
22 yards to Hardman
2 yards to Kelce.
THEN a 54 yard pass that no other QB on Earth can make, caught and scored by maybe the only receiver on Earth that has a chance to make that play.

There was a lot of luck that went into that score. Okay, maybe 'luck' isn't the right word, but it's not like the Chiefs were just marching down the field and it was a given that they'd score a TD on that possession. It took a once-in-a-lifetime type of pass and catch to score that TD.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

But look at that scoring drive.

Rush for 1 yard.
Mahomes INT. Called back for off-sides penalty.
INC
11 yards to Watkins, who leaves the game for injury.
22 yards to Hardman
2 yards to Kelce.
THEN a 54 yard pass that no other QB on Earth can make, caught and scored by maybe the only receiver on Earth that has a chance to make that play.

There was a lot of luck that went into that score. Okay, maybe 'luck' isn't the right word, but it's not like the Chiefs were just marching down the field and it was a given that they'd score a TD on that possession. It took a once-in-a-lifetime type of pass and catch to score that TD.

And the Chargers D'd the HELL out of that 2 point conversion attempt. And had the Chiefs on the ropes several times during both the tying FG drive (3rd and 21) and OT (4th down; a couple of 3rd down scrambles).

At no point in that game did the Chiefs offense truly look comfortable. Even when they were scoring, it was pulling teeth out there.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

You know why you don't go for it on 4th-and-1 right there?'

-1
1
1
-1
2

Know what those are? The yardage results of the 5 previous Charger running plays in the 4th quarter and OT.

The Chargers has 4th and goal at the 4 and had to settle for a FG.

There was absolutely no guarantee the Chargers could get 1 yard at that point - the momentum of the game had changed. If it weren't for a roughing penalty on Chris Jones, the Chargers offense was completely inept at the end of the game.

This is a great point. The defense was getting washed on run plays and couldn't tackle for shit for most of the game, but they stiffened up late.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

But look at that scoring drive.

Rush for 1 yard.
Mahomes INT. Called back for off-sides penalty.
INC
11 yards to Watkins, who leaves the game for injury.
22 yards to Hardman
2 yards to Kelce.
THEN a 54 yard pass that no other QB on Earth can make, caught and scored by maybe the only receiver on Earth that has a chance to make that play.

There was a lot of luck that went into that score. Okay, maybe 'luck' isn't the right word, but it's not like the Chiefs were just marching down the field and it was a given that they'd score a TD on that possession. It took a once-in-a-lifetime type of pass and catch to score that TD.

It wasn't luck we have seen Mahomes do that since he has been our QB and saw it in the SB. That is why you don't punt in that situation because he can score or make a big play on you at any time. Also I was mistaken, it wasn't 2 straight scoring drives, it was 3. And if it wasn't for a BS holding call we probably wouldn't have gone to OT anyway.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Weren't they on their own 30 or 34 yard line or something? You can't go for it in OT against Mahomes from your own 30 yard line. That's basically suicide. You especially don't do it with your rookie QB in his very first NFL game. You don't put a kid in that position. You put the onus (if it doesn't work out) on the HC's shoulders.

Bullshit. Both defenses looked gassed

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Plain and simple...you don't give MJ a last possession, yiu take the clock down to the last second...you don't punt to Mahomes on 4th and 1. The dude is on an otherworldly clutch streak

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Plain and simple...you don't give MJ a last possession, yiu take the clock down to the last second...you don't punt to Mahomes on 4th and 1. The dude is on an otherworldly clutch streak

I’m not saying you’re wrong but if that’s the thinking then you’d better be prepared to go for it on 4th and 7 from your own 15. The reality is, as many have said, Mahomes makes it to where any decision you make is most likely wrong. How ****ing glorious that we’re the team on the good side of that?

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

I’m not saying you’re wrong but if that’s the thinking then you’d better be prepared to go for it on 4th and 7 from your own 15. The reality is, as many have said, Mahomes makes it to where any decision you make is most likely wrong. How ****ing glorious that we’re the team on the good side of that?

Exactly.

It isn't a slam dunk decision because there's really no "right" answer.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Somebody else said it, but your reaction as a fan is often a decent proxy for the wisdom of the decision.

When the punt team came out I thought "phew...it's Patrick time!" so in real time that clearly suggests that I think Lynn made a pussy decision.

Buuuuuuut....I was in the middle of grilling wings and drinking beer. I definitely hadn't given it a ton of thought other than being excited PM got the ball back. Meanwhile I never considered how likely it was he was getting the ball back in some capacity anyway.

I'm betting Lynn did. I'm betting Lynn put a lot more into his calculus on the fly than most are doing this morning at their desk. Because hell, he spent all week preparing for 100 different situations and I'm betting this was one of 'em.

I just think saying "man, you never give the ball to Mahomes..." is way too surface level and isn't giving nearly enough credit to all the things that have to be considered. Things that Lynn almost certainly DID consider and his detractors presently aren't.

People seem to be forgetting it took a superhuman effort in the kicking game for KC to win.

What team wouldn't take the odds if they were told, punt here and the other team will have to kick a 58 yard FG to win. I mean its arguable that since Butlker had already made 1 58 yard FG the odds of making another were pretty damn low. Maybe as low as Bill O'Brien's odds of winning coach of the year.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

People seem to be forgetting it took a superhuman effort in the kicking game for KC to win.

What team wouldn't take the odds if they were told, punt here and the other team will have to kick a 58 yard FG to win. I mean its arguable that since Butlker had already made 1 58 yard FG the odds of making another were pretty damn low. Maybe as low as Bill O'Brien's odds of winning coach of the year.

Exactly.