Chubb (CLE) going out of bounds up 10-7?

[Buehler445]

I slept through it, but what's up with that? They don't want to blow out Houston by 10? WTF?

[wazu]

I remember a few years back the Packers were in a situation where they had to win their Week 17 game by like 37 points or something to make the playoffs. They came out firing downfield and ended up almost doing it but coming up just short.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I wonder how often that tiebreaker has been used. It's SEVENTH on the list, so it seems...bizarre...to think about that as part of your strategy. Otherwise, we'd see teams running up the score all the time.

There's currently 7 three-win teams in the AFC.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

There's currently 7 three-win teams in the AFC.

Not sure of the relevance...

[wazu]

Had to look up that Packers game. They actually did cover the points they needed in Week 17 of 2000, but needed help in another game that didn't happen. Just remember how interesting it was that winning their game that day would be meaningless if they didn't do it by enough points.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/1999/200001...ap/arignb.html

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I didn't say it was probable. I just would prefer my coach make decisions based on maximizing win probability, and I'll take 99.99% over 99.90%.

Eh I don’t know.

I know we’re making up probabilities here but let’s go through it:

In order to lose going out of bounds you need the following to happen:
-Cleveland needs to Rivers the snap CLE recover
AND
-Houston to go on a 99 yard drive <:60, provided they don’t advance the recovery. If they do, a shorter drive becomes more probable, a score pretty much ends it.
Unlikely.

In order to lose scoring you need the following to happen:
-Houston to go on a 75 yard (likely) TD drive <:60
AND
-Houston recovers onside kick (which are impossible now unless your playing a short bus team like Atlanta)
AND
Houston manufactures a 50ish yard TD drive in <:60-drive 1. OR Houston manufactures at least a 30 yard drive for a Long FG in <:60-drive 1 and win in overtime.
I’d say about as likely as scenario 1.

I’ll take the points.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Eh I don’t know.

I know we’re making up probabilities here but let’s go through it:

In order to lose going out of bounds you need the following to happen:
-Cleveland needs to Rivers the snap CLE recover
AND
-Houston to go on a 99 yard drive <:60, provided they don’t advance the recovery. If they do, a shorter drive becomes more probable, a score pretty much ends it.
Unlikely.

In order to lose scoring you need the following to happen:
-Houston to go on a 75 yard (likely) TD drive <:60
AND
-Houston recovers onside kick (which are impossible now unless your playing a short bus team like Atlanta)
AND
Houston manufactures a 50ish yard TD drive in <:60-drive 1. OR Houston manufactures at least a 30 yard drive for a Long FG in <:60-drive 1 and win in overtime.
I’d say about as likely as scenario 1.

I’ll take the points.

Find me any other game that has been lost on a botched kneel down, and I might believe the probabilities are similar.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I'm confused. Their chances of winning the game were 100% since he went out of bounds. Scoring would have made the chances less than 100%. But people still want him to score?

I guess I'm glad you guys aren't NFL coaches.

SOME OF US HAVE OTHER REASONS FOR WANTING HIM TO SCORE FOR ****S SAKE

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Find me any other game that has been lost on a botched kneel down, and I might believe the probabilities are similar.

Similarly, can you find games that have a TD and FG in <:60 + OT victory OR 2 TD in <:60? I can't think of any off hand.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Find me any other game that has been lost on a botched kneel down, and I might believe the probabilities are similar.

I guess the other one is ol Squirmin Herman Mother****ing Sack of **** Edwards in the Miracle at the Meadowlands.

[Spott]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Eh I don’t know.

I know we’re making up probabilities here but let’s go through it:

In order to lose going out of bounds you need the following to happen:
-Cleveland needs to Rivers the snap CLE recover
AND
-Houston to go on a 99 yard drive <:60, provided they don’t advance the recovery. If they do, a shorter drive becomes more probable, a score pretty much ends it.
Unlikely.

In order to lose scoring you need the following to happen:
-Houston to go on a 75 yard (likely) TD drive <:60
AND
-Houston recovers onside kick (which are impossible now unless your playing a short bus team like Atlanta)
AND
Houston manufactures a 50ish yard TD drive in <:60-drive 1. OR Houston manufactures at least a 30 yard drive for a Long FG in <:60-drive 1 and win in overtime.
I’d say about as likely as scenario 1.

I’ll take the points.

Although those odds are pretty slim, I’ve seen scenarios like that happen in the last two minutes a few times. I think Atlanta recovered two onside kicks in a row against the Saints last year. Aside from the miracle in the Meadowlands, I can’t remember a time when a team lost when all they had to do was take a knee.

But I still wanted Williams to score at the end and it wouldn’t have been near as great a moment in Chiefs history if he decided to go down at the 5 yard line.

[Spott]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Similarly, can you find games that have a TD and FG in <:60 + OT victory OR 2 TD in <:60? I can't think of any off hand.

Rivers came back and beat us in the 2000’s when they were down 21-10 with under 90 seconds left. They scored a TD, recovered the onside kick and got another TD to win 22-21.

Edit: Rivers also fumbled the snap at Arrowhead when taking a knee to run out the clock and kick a game winning FG against us in 2011 (I think).

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Similarly, can you find games that have a TD and FG in <:60 + OT victory OR 2 TD in <:60? I can't think of any off hand.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...-comeback-win/

https://www.nfl.com/games/broncos-at-chiefs-2015-reg-2

[Shoes]

The only reason to be upset at Chubb is if you had money on the game, that's it.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by Shoes

The only reason to be upset at Chubb is if you had money on the game, that's it.

Or maybe you're a Browns fan who drafted him in fantasy and all you needed to win this week was 4 more points. You've lived your entire shitty life rooting for this garbage team and now they do this to you?

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Spott

Rivers came back and beat us in the 2000’s when they were down 21-10 with under 90 seconds left. They scored a TD, recovered the onside kick and got another TD to win 22-21.

Edit: Rivers also fumbled the snap at Arrowhead when taking a knee to run out the clock and kick a game winning FG against us in 2011 (I think).

Pretty big difference between :90 and <:60, but it's close.

Originally Posted by Bearcat

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...-comeback-win/

https://www.nfl.com/games/broncos-at-chiefs-2015-reg-2

**** Donk Forever.

So if you count Phyllis and the Miracle Game, that's 2. The 2 that bearcat listed and maybe half of the one Spott listed, so you're looking at a 2:2.5 ratio out of how many damned tries?

Pretty even odds to me.