Let’s talk about the Miami Dolphins

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Headed down to a familiar location for the Florida heat and a highly formidable opponent.

The Dolphins have a great defense, a mediocre at best offense. Not all that different from Denver really, but coached better.

A win would clinch the AFCW for the 5th straight season, so there is some added importance. Of course we are on Pittsburgh’s heels, too.

I think we all aren’t totally sure what to make of the team at this point. They’ve been inconsistent in their focus, their execution. There seem to be problem areas that could be upgraded by simply plugging a backup in (hi, Wis), but it remains to be seen if any changes are going to be made.

It’s a weird league where outcomes are all over the place, winning is really damn hard, but they’re still 11-1 and largely look to be on cruise control half the time. I do think there’s something to be said for the GS Warriors comparison where sometimes they just don’t flip the switch until they have to. I guess we will see what happens as the games get bigger and bigger for this team.

This one won’t be easy, but if the offense comes out locked in from the go, it shouldn’t be a scare. I also think it’s another opportunity for the defense to perform well again, but I still feel like we need more from our pass rush along the DL moving forward.

Game is at noon on CBS...

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

Dolphins offense is atrocious. They rank right there with the Bengals, Eagles, Bears, and Giants in total offense. They rank middle of the pack in scoring, which tells you how bad they need turnovers to create short fields.

If we don’t turn the ball over, the Dolphins have zero shot.

That’s also with a lot of games where Fitz was at QB. Their offense is significantly worse with Tua.

[smithandrew051]

This Dolphins team is really like a 6-10 or 7-9 team who is going to finish maybe 9-7. They’re losing a minimum of 3 of their last 4 games (maybe all 4).

Their win against the Rams is a real head scratcher.

The Dolphins only ran 48 plays for 145 yards. 3.9 yards per pass and 2.2 yards per catch.

The Rams ran 92 plays for 471 yards, but lost by 11.

The Rams ended the first half offensively with:

Interception
Punt
Fumble returned for TD
Punt returned for TD
Interception
Fumble
Field Goal

That’s about as bad as it gets. Credit to the Dolphins for taking advantage, but that type of shit doesn’t happen often against good teams.

The Dolphins longest drive was 33 yards...

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah but Mahomes is like 35-8. There isn't much that works. Holding onto the ball isn't going to guarantee a win, but it sure is a better option than trying to blitz him and play aggressive and letting Tyreek go off for 200 yards in a quarter.

Mahomes is literally the highest rated QB against EVERY tactic. Zone, man, blitz, no blitz, he's the best in the league against all of it.

So pick your poison.

[VanDolPhan]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Dolphins fans are REALLY confident in their CB duo of Howard and Jones and their secondary overall.

Considering what the passing attacks of Buffalo, Seattle, and Arizona did to them, I don't quite get it...

Average performance from Allen, Wilson, and Murray was:
70% completions for 10.5 YPA, 341 yards, 2.7 TDs and 0.3 INTs

Those teams each put up 31 points. KC has a deeper/better group of playmakers and a better QB than each of those teams.

I expect KC to put up something like 38 points and 500 yards. Big day for Mahomes, especially early if the Dolphins try to leave Howard and Jones on islands against Hill and Watkins.

Having Watkins back is so big. If teams are employing the New England approach and doubling both Kelce and Hill, Watkins against single coverage (and, at best, CB #2) is the matchup KC can use to kill them.

While I don't expect Miami to win. I feel the need to clear up some issues with your post. Early on in the season Howard was still working toward being 100% from his knee injury. He was on limited snaps the first week in NE. Jones went down the first few plays of the Buffalo game. Miami inserted 20 year old corner Noah who got his butt whooped bad. Kid just wasn't ready. Suffice to say Miami would have won that game if Jones hadn't gone down. Noah also gave up several critical plays against Seattle in what had been a tight game. Against the Cardinals they just couldn't stop Murray from escaping all the time (He literally ran for over 100 yards).

So basically you all haven't seen zero blitzing the way Miami does it combined with having 3 solid corners and 2 solid safeties (former corners). At the same time Miami is crap at handling mobile QB's. Get Mahomes on the move and he will run all day long.

It should be an interesting matchup as CB Nik Needham has been playing well lately. Giving them 3 good corners combined with a solid set of corners/safeties. Where K.C. should hit them is our LB's. They've been pretty terrible in coverage and in stopping the run. Also sticking with the run is the way to go as besides our LB's sucking in run support. So do our safeties beyond Brandon Jones as he's the only real safety out there. McCain and Rowe are former CB's who aren't that good at playing the run.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Chiefs will coast to a win.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah but Mahomes is like 35-8. There isn't much that works. Holding onto the ball isn't going to guarantee a win, but it sure is a better option than trying to blitz him and play aggressive and letting Tyreek go off for 200 yards in a quarter.

I made this point in another thread: The Chiefs have been killing teams with clock eating time of possession drives and holding the ball themselves, effectively keeping Pat ON the field.

I didn't go look at all their games, but if you look at what was billed as the "biggest" games: Ravens they were +6 in TOP....they DESTROYED the Bills in TOP by like 14 mins, 2nd Raiders Game +6, Bucs game +13 mins. Any time a big game has come up, it is the Chiefs that dominated the TOP and limited their opponents, giving their competition less drives to score, because they know the Chiefs offense is going to score on 5-7 drives every game regardless. Less drives for the opponents only increases the odds that they cannot keep up, it doesn't make it better.....it's also a function of trying to eliminate the long ball (except for TB of course), which means that Pat is shredding them on the underneath stuff when he needs to....pick your poison!

While there is no sound recipe for beating the Chiefs, if you look at their history since Pat took over, it's actually the opposite: with exception to the Colts, each team that won against the Chiefs did so by outscoring them and forcing a ton of mistakes. Exactly once in two years was a team able to win by "slowing" it down (Indy last year)....The only team to beat him that didn't have to score 30 (other than the Colts) was the Chargers in 2018, who had to score 29 to do it

So, the implication here is that you have to put up 30 points and force a boatload of mistakes to beat the Chiefs, and the "slow the game down" has (a) proven not to work; (b) is just some media rhetoric that everyone for some reason seems to believe; and (c) fat chance that the Dolphins are going to be able to replicate it (not impossible by any means, but very unlikely)

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by VanDolPhan

While I don't expect Miami to win. I feel the need to clear up some issues with your post. Early on in the season Howard was still working toward being 100% from his knee injury. He was on limited snaps the first week in NE. Jones went down the first few plays of the Buffalo game. Miami inserted 20 year old corner Noah who got his butt whooped bad. Kid just wasn't ready. Suffice to say Miami would have won that game if Jones hadn't gone down. Noah also gave up several critical plays against Seattle in what had been a tight game. Against the Cardinals they just couldn't stop Murray from escaping all the time (He literally ran for over 100 yards).

So basically you all haven't seen zero blitzing the way Miami does it combined with having 3 solid corners and 2 solid safeties (former corners). At the same time Miami is crap at handling mobile QB's. Get Mahomes on the move and he will run all day long.

It should be an interesting matchup as CB Nik Needham has been playing well lately. Giving them 3 good corners combined with a solid set of corners/safeties. Where K.C. should hit them is our LB's. They've been pretty terrible in coverage and in stopping the run. Also sticking with the run is the way to go as besides our LB's sucking in run support. So do our safeties beyond Brandon Jones as he's the only real safety out there. McCain and Rowe are former CB's who aren't that good at playing the run.

You're going to have issues with Travis Kelce for one.

Also if they line up DB heavy like that and try to blitz, the Chiefs will pound the ball as well. They don't do that often but when they do (see Buffalo) they can be pretty good at it.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by VanDolPhan

While I don't expect Miami to win. I feel the need to clear up some issues with your post. Early on in the season Howard was still working toward being 100% from his knee injury. He was on limited snaps the first week in NE. Jones went down the first few plays of the Buffalo game. Miami inserted 20 year old corner Noah who got his butt whooped bad. Kid just wasn't ready. Suffice to say Miami would have won that game if Jones hadn't gone down. Noah also gave up several critical plays against Seattle in what had been a tight game. Against the Cardinals they just couldn't stop Murray from escaping all the time (He literally ran for over 100 yards).

So basically you all haven't seen zero blitzing the way Miami does it combined with having 3 solid corners and 2 solid safeties (former corners). At the same time Miami is crap at handling mobile QB's. Get Mahomes on the move and he will run all day long.

It should be an interesting matchup as CB Nik Needham has been playing well lately. Giving them 3 good corners combined with a solid set of corners/safeties. Where K.C. should hit them is our LB's. They've been pretty terrible in coverage and in stopping the run. Also sticking with the run is the way to go as besides our LB's sucking in run support. So do our safeties beyond Brandon Jones as he's the only real safety out there. McCain and Rowe are former CB's who aren't that good at playing the run.

If Miami zero blitzes, we'll score 50. Who your corners are literally doesn't matter anymore. You can't cover Hill, Watkins, Kelce, and Hardman manning up. Mahomes is also ranked #1 against blitz packages, and yes, quite comfortable moving outside the pocket, where he is also ranked #1.

That's not the way to slow this offense down, and if Flores tries to do that, it'll get really ugly really fast.

I think Flores is a hell of a coach, and I expect him to do the exact opposite. Stop the run and play coverage, mulitiple looks, etc. Make Mahomes dink and dunk and hope for a turnover. Although he's become quite a bit more patient this season, so that's still kind of picking your poison. And if you can't cover Kelce, you're still screwed.

Your best shot is really to be able to get to Mahomes with 4 rushers. If you can do that and play zone, you've got a shot.

[VanDolPhan]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

You're going to have issues with Travis Kelce for one.

Also if they line up DB heavy like that and try to blitz, the Chiefs will pound the ball as well. They don't do that often but when they do (see Buffalo) they can be pretty good at it.

Rowe vs Kelce I am looking forward to. Rowe has been shutting down TE's since halfway thru last season (after a decade of TE's having their way in Miami). He's going to be tested very hard with Kelce. I expect your running game to have a very good day. It's where Miami is clearly weakest.

They don't send the DB's on blitzes very often. They'll mix it up with the LB's. The only time you might see heavy blitzes is in clear passing situations. Honestly I don't think they'll heavy blitz unless it's like 3rd and 9 or longer. I think at most they'll send 1 extra blitzer. Likely they'll keep their safeties back. Never know what Boyer will call up.

Hell I'll consider it a good day if we keep your passing under 300 yards.

I love the way this team is building but they aren't ready for top tier teams yet. Basically were a fiesty team with an opportunistic pass defense and excellent special teams who are crap against stopping the run, stopping mobile QB's from running.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

You're going to have issues with Travis Kelce for one.

Also if they line up DB heavy like that and try to blitz, the Chiefs will pound the ball as well. They don't do that often but when they do (see Buffalo) they can be pretty good at it.

I'll say this: The worst thing the Dolphins could do is go cover 0....that will not end well for them....

[VAGOMO 4 LIFE!]

Fewest interceptions in 5,000-yard season:

2013 Peyton Manning (10)
2018 Patrick Mahomes (12)
2013 Drew Brees (12)
2011 Tom Brady (12)

Patrick Mahomes is on pace for 5,086 Pass yds and has thrown 2 picks.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

I made this point in another thread: The Chiefs have been killing teams with clock eating time of possession drives and holding the ball themselves, effectively keeping Pat ON the field.

I didn't go look at all their games, but if you look at what was billed as the "biggest" games: Ravens they were +6 in TOP....they DESTROYED the Bills in TOP by like 14 mins, 2nd Raiders Game +6, Bucs game +13 mins. Any time a big game has come up, it is the Chiefs that dominated the TOP and limited their opponents, giving their competition less drives to score, because they know the Chiefs offense is going to score on 5-7 drives every game regardless. Less drives for the opponents only increases the odds that they cannot keep up, it doesn't make it better.....it's also a function of trying to eliminate the long ball (except for TB of course), which means that Pat is shredding them on the underneath stuff when he needs to....pick your poison!

While there is no sound recipe for beating the Chiefs, if you look at their history since Pat took over, it's actually the opposite: with exception to the Colts, each team that won against the Chiefs did so by outscoring them and forcing a ton of mistakes. Exactly once in two years was a team able to win by "slowing" it down (Indy last year)....The only team to beat him that didn't have to score 30 (other than the Colts) was the Chargers in 2018, who had to score 29 to do it

So, the implication here is that you have to put up 30 points and force a boatload of mistakes to beat the Chiefs, and the "slow the game down" has (a) proven not to work; (b) is just some media rhetoric that everyone for some reason seems to believe; and (c) fat chance that the Dolphins are going to be able to replicate it (not impossible by any means, but very unlikely)

I don't disagree exactly; but the problem with just trying to outshoot the Chiefs is that you've got to have the horses to do so.

I mean, The Dolphins for example do not have the skill position talent to try to air it out and win a shootout. They just don't, and if they try, they're going to lose by 50.

I know the tendency is to look at the '18 Patriots and Rams games, but those were also stellar offenses.

And our defense was laughably bad at that.

I don't see any offense at the moment that can try to win a shootout with KC. Maybe GB on a good day?

No, your best bet right now is to run the ball, play keep away, and be able to rush 4 and get to Patrick. And offensively you need to pretty much be perfect.

[Deberg_1990]

Originally Posted by VanDolPhan

Rowe vs Kelce I am looking forward to. Rowe has been shutting down TE's since halfway thru last season (after a decade of TE's having their way in Miami). He's going to be tested very hard with Kelce. I expect your running game to have a very good day. It's where Miami is clearly weakest.

They don't send the DB's on blitzes very often. They'll mix it up with the LB's. The only time you might see heavy blitzes is in clear passing situations. Honestly I don't think they'll heavy blitz unless it's like 3rd and 9 or longer. I think at most they'll send 1 extra blitzer. Likely they'll keep their safeties back. Never know what Boyer will call up.

Hell I'll consider it a good day if we keep your passing under 300 yards.

I love the way this team is building but they aren't ready for top tier teams yet. Basically were a fiesty team with an opportunistic pass defense and excellent special teams who are crap against stopping the run, stopping mobile QB's from running.

How did the Phins let Denver beat them?

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by VanDolPhan

Rowe vs Kelce I am looking forward to. Rowe has been shutting down TE's since halfway thru last season (after a decade of TE's having their way in Miami). He's going to be tested very hard with Kelce. I expect your running game to have a very good day. It's where Miami is clearly weakest.

They don't send the DB's on blitzes very often. They'll mix it up with the LB's. The only time you might see heavy blitzes is in clear passing situations. Honestly I don't think they'll heavy blitz unless it's like 3rd and 9 or longer. I think at most they'll send 1 extra blitzer. Likely they'll keep their safeties back. Never know what Boyer will call up.

Hell I'll consider it a good day if we keep your passing under 300 yards.

I love the way this team is building but they aren't ready for top tier teams yet. Basically were a fiesty team with an opportunistic pass defense and excellent special teams who are crap against stopping the run, stopping mobile QB's from running.

There's no way they just put a guy on Kelce and hope for the best.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by VanDolPhan

While I don't expect Miami to win. I feel the need to clear up some issues with your post. Early on in the season Howard was still working toward being 100% from his knee injury. He was on limited snaps the first week in NE. Jones went down the first few plays of the Buffalo game. Miami inserted 20 year old corner Noah who got his butt whooped bad. Kid just wasn't ready. Suffice to say Miami would have won that game if Jones hadn't gone down. Noah also gave up several critical plays against Seattle in what had been a tight game. Against the Cardinals they just couldn't stop Murray from escaping all the time (He literally ran for over 100 yards).

So basically you all haven't seen zero blitzing the way Miami does it combined with having 3 solid corners and 2 solid safeties (former corners). At the same time Miami is crap at handling mobile QB's. Get Mahomes on the move and he will run all day long.

It should be an interesting matchup as CB Nik Needham has been playing well lately. Giving them 3 good corners combined with a solid set of corners/safeties. Where K.C. should hit them is our LB's. They've been pretty terrible in coverage and in stopping the run. Also sticking with the run is the way to go as besides our LB's sucking in run support. So do our safeties beyond Brandon Jones as he's the only real safety out there. McCain and Rowe are former CB's who aren't that good at playing the run.

I appreciate the context on the Jones injury.

What makes Kelce such a difficult cover is that there really isn’t a way to cover him with one person. If you match him up with a LB, he’s going to use his movement skills and route running to creat huge separation. If you match him up with a DB, he’ll run more traditional TE routes and then YAC that DB.

Unless you have a S that covers like a corner and tackles like a LB, Kelce requires two men to actually slow him down and force the ball elsewhere. The often-broken Derwin James is kind of the template you need. It doesn’t sound like Rowe has that.

Zero blitzing and leaving Kelce, Hill, Hardman, Watkins singled up one CB is a recipe for disaster, no matter how good those guys are.

Go look at what Hill did to Carlton Davis against Tampa. That’s a good, emerging CB and he made him look pathetic.