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Old 12-17-2021, 03:30 PM   #11
zigbazah zigbazah is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2012
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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
This was always going to be the issue with coaches going for it more on 4th down. Inevitably they'll have a bad variance game, and the national media will have a field day, fans will get disgruntled (fortunately for the Chargers they have no fans). And you know that stuff filters to the players. If other things start going wrong, the players may start doubting the renegade coach.

So when the bad luck streak from the higher variance (but correct) plays inevitably happens, will the coach stick to his guns? Will the coach have enough clout and people skills to keep from losing the players? That's always been the big question to me.

Staley seems like a really good coach. But we don't know how he is on the practice field and in the locker room. He might be too much of a cold fish or something. If he's really good in the locker room *and* sticks to his guns, it's going to earn him extra wins, which is scary as hell to have in our division with Herbert at QB.
The thing about probability is that it pays off for you eventually but you don't always get eventually, especially in sports. I think if last night's game were played 100 times, the Chargers win most of them, but there's no world where that can happen.

Football has such a short season too. There's more variance than in other games. I feel like it's pretty difficult for a coach to brush off results oriented thinking in a structure like the NFL where every individual result is so crucial. It's way, way easier to lose a few games in leagues like MLB or the NBA.
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