If the Chiefs took WR Christian Watson at 30…

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Here's the thing, though:

You keep knocking Watson's production, and I get it. But the context of the situation is thus:

Over the past 10 seasons:

NDSU has run the ball 6,499 times for 39,968 yards. They have thrown the ball 3,068 times for 25,629 yards.

That's a 68 percent run rate. They average almost 6 yards a pop over that span, so you see why they stick with it.

Looking back, starting in 2014, you start seeing a slight decrease in the number of times they throw the ball. From 36% in 2012-13 to 27% this past year. They WERE a run-heavy scheme to start and have skewed even more strongly in that direction.

This isn't about Watson not dominating or the coaches not trusting him. It's about an absolute powerhouse with a clear, long-standing, and absolutely successful system sticking with that system regardless of personnel.

If the Bison had thrown the ball at the same rate in 2021 as they did at the start of this period (36%) and succeeded at the same rate, you'd roughly expect Watson's numbers to be in the 1200 yard, 11-12 TD range.

And shoot, running the same exercise and using, say, the run-pass balance of Ohio State against it... that's 54 percent passes. You're looking at 1600 yards and 14 TDs.

I think Watson's production is a red herring when it comes to evaluating him. Lot of words for me to get to that thesis, but there it is.

And Georgia Tech ran the triple option.

But when they had Calvin Johnson, they got him the ball. Damaryius Thomas went for 1,200 a few years later.

If you have a great player, you use him, regardless of what your 'system' is. NDSU just flat didn't. And that's at a level of competition where Megatron is still dominant, but not the 'first round generational talent playing against dudes that can barely put their own pads on' discrepancy.

If this guy were that good he'd be a cheat code. And frankly why are we just NOW hearing about him as a first day pick? Guy had a 1st round quarterback he played with for 2 seasons. If nothing else when teams/analysis are watching those tapes they'd see Watson. Yet it wasn't until he blew up at the combine that anyone was talking about him this high.

If you have Randy Moss playing against FCS opponents down there, SOMEBODY is gonna notice. We're not talking about Jerry Rice at Mississippi Valley in the early 80s - there are eyes everywhere.

And for all the talk of his perfect RAS score - guy didn't even run a 3-cone or short shuttle and that's where you worry about his length. Moreover, it's so arbitrary. Sure, he jumped out of the gym and ran really fast - so did Chris Conley but when they say "one of 3 guys to ever score that high with his height" - that's because they put the cutoff one inch taller than Conley at 6'3". Conley actually had longer arms. He had a better broad jump, much better vertical.

Watson isn't a unicorn. He's very athletic but there are guys like him almost every year at 6'2". And since he didn't DO the tests that might expose the issues associated with him being 6'4", I'm pretty hard pressed to just hand-waive them.

Because again, if we're putting all this stock into the stopwatch, why are we just ignoring the fact that he elected not to run those drills? There's absolutely a reason for that.

And again - I'm not saying he has NO ability. I'm saying he'd be a solid 3rd round pick and a possible pick in the late 2nd. For an FCS receiver that's just damn near unheard of.