Chiefs If fully healthy, this could be the greatest offense we've ever watched

JustDíqLix · 01-09-2023, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah - so you should go ahead and give that a try then.

Hint: that extra zero AFTER the decimal in 2021 is pretty important.

Again, that doesn’t really matter, because it’s relative for all teams.

You could make it 3,000,000 instead of .03 and as long as the same change is made relative for all teams the graph would still hold. The place on the map is really all that matters in that it shows good defense with good offense … good offense with bad defense …. bad defense with bad offense… etc.

DJ's left nut · 01-09-2023, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustDiqLix

Again, that doesn’t really matter, because it’s relative for all teams.

You could make it 3,000,000 instead of .03 and as long as the same change is made relative for all teams the graph would still hold. The place on the map is really all that matters in that it shows good defense with good offense … good offense with bad defense …. bad defense with bad offense… etc.

It does matter because relative to the league the chiefs don't have a 'good' offense - they have a great one.

And last time that was the case, Josh had himself a little tantrum before he went home for the season.

**Bearcat** · 01-09-2023, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustDiqLix

Again, that doesn’t really matter, because it’s relative for all teams.

You could make it 3,000,000 instead of .03 and as long as the same change is made relative for all teams the graph would still hold. The place on the map is really all that matters in that it shows good defense with good offense … good offense with bad defense …. bad defense with bad offense… etc.

If you're heading back to your super dense, repeat the same wrongness several times so people continue arguing with you - ways.... then we'll go back to our ban you from every thread except the overhyped thread ways.

The tiers have been explained several times, and you ignored it back then... and the graph is read top left/bottom right along the diagonals... the Chiefs are so far right of their diagonal, they're almost in a tier by themselves.

Offense is more predictable than defense, so it's skewed that way for a reason. The Chiefs are the best team on that graph because their offense in tenths of a point is far better than .05 in defense.

It's not an opinion, it's how the ****ing graph works. FFS, it's in bold red in the title of the thread. Tiers, not quadrants. If you of all people had found some magic square box, I'd think the people who created DVOA would notice and adjust as well.

JustDíqLix · 01-09-2023, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bearcat

If you're heading back to your super dense, repeat the same wrongness several times so people continue arguing with you - ways.... then we'll go back to our ban you from every thread except the overhyped thread ways.

The tiers have been explained several times, and you ignored it back then... and the graph is read top left/bottom right along the diagonals... the Chiefs are so far right of their diagonal, they're almost in a tier by themselves.

Offense is more predictable than defense, so it's skewed that way for a reason. The Chiefs are the best team on that graph because their offense in tenths of a point is far better than .05 in defense.

It's not an opinion, it's how the ****ing graph works. FFS, it's in bold red in the title of the thread. Tiers, not quadrants. If you of all people had found some magic square box, I'd think the people who created DVOA would notice and adjust as well.

Ok. I wasn’t trying to be dense, I guess my brain is just having a hard time grasping the chart.

dlphg9 · 01-09-2023, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustDiqLix

Ok. I wasn’t trying to be dense, I guess my brain is just having a hard time grasping the chart.

Kudos to you for admitting you don't know. 95% of the members here would take this moment to double down and keep saying the wrong thing.

**Bearcat** · 01-09-2023, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Kudos to you for admitting you don't know. 95% of the members here would take this moment to double down and keep saying the wrong thing.

Yeah, like two months ago when he "disagreed" with the repeated explanations of how it works....

Spoiler!

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustDiqLix

Lol I don’t think you understand how to read this chart.

This chart says the most balanced teams in the NFL are the Eagles, Bills and Bengals. The best offensive EPA combined with meh defense is the Chiefs and Dolphins.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Balance would be indicated by teams on a diagonal from bottom left to top right. Teams closest to that line would have equally good (or bad) offense and defense.

The diagonals actually shown indicate tiers of team when offense and defense are considered together. It shows that the Chiefs ate the best team, followed by Bills and Eagles. The Chiefs offense is good enough to carry their meh defense.

Of course in a single game elimination playoff system, single game variations stack the odds strongly against any team taking it all. The Chiefs are the best, but their odds of winning the SB are only about 1:5.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustDiqLix

Yeah when you have the best offense in the league and only a slightly below average defense, you are in a great position to win in the playoffs. That’s common sense.

But what the chart tells you are the most balanced teams are the Eagles, Bills and Bengals.

On any EPA chart you want to look at the upper right quadrant. That’s how EPA x,y charts work.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustDiqLix

Correct.

That’s why the upper right quadrant are always the most balanced teams.

They combine the most efficient offenses with the most efficient defenses.

Lower right quadrant combines the most efficient offenses with less efficient defenses.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Yeah, so "balance" doesn't really matter on that chart, as cdcox said. The far right diagonal/tier are of course the best teams, and the further right you go, the better, since offense is more predictable (and important, obviously) than defense. Teams can be anywhere on that Bills/Bengals/Eagles diagonal and they're considered the same.

Or to put it another way, the Browns and Jets are the same, just for different reasons.

The Chiefs being almost to the next diagonal means they're better than everyone else. Yeah, hang your hat on "balance", but that chart is literally saying where the Bills/Bengals/Eagles are at on offense and defense doesn't matter because the Chiefs offense more than makes up for their defense.

Quote:

The grey tier lines create comparisons across teams. Teams on the same line are "equal" and expected to perform similarly on a forward looking basis. Because offensive performance is more predictive than defensive performance, these lines have a slope greater than 1 (1.6).

The tiers themselves represent the historical distribution of teams against the league average (median). For instance, a team at the "p90" line would be better than 90% of teams in any given year.

https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-r...nfl-epa-tiers/

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustDiqLix

Tl;dr - Because offensive performance is more predictive of success, the Chiefs being at the highest offensive EPA means they’re the best.

I respect your opinion but I disagree. If that was the case, there would be no point in the chart. Just put a list of the top offensive EPA teams and ignore the defensive rankings.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustDiqLix

As I said, the most balanced teams in the league are the Bills and Eagles. The chart showed this too.

Halfcan · 01-09-2023, 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Yeah, like two months ago when he "disagreed" with the repeated explanations of how it works....

Spoiler!

Evidently, Bills fans are much better at jumping on tables, hot-wiring cars and fingering each other's booty holes than reading charts.

JustDíqLix · 01-09-2023, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Kudos to you for admitting you don't know. 95% of the members here would take this moment to double down and keep saying the wrong thing.

Every time I see that chart my brain wants to read it like a normal plot chart. I completely forgot that Bearcat educated me on it last time. Hopefully itll “stick” this time.