Chiefs What's with the Thigpen fixation? - Page 40

Mecca · 02-10-2009, 04:53 PM

Now I fully admit it isn't as bad as I thought it was going to be on this forum but I've yet to figure out this fixation with him. It's really bad at some other unnamed forums..

I honestly have no way of comprehending what it's about. It's like everything people said about Croyle has now been lumped onto Thigpen. "Well um he's the guy we don't need another QB"

The worst part is the people who don't want a QB this year then say well if Thigpen doesn't work out we can just take Bradford or McCoy, it's like peoples brains fell out.

**RealSNR** · 02-10-2009, 11:24 PM

If only we had a QB like Big Ben who wills his team to win big games in 2003 against the Colts. Trent Green clearly didn't care about winning enough to drive the Chiefs down the field and win a close game. It was all his fault.

Ben Roethlisberger can win close games. Trent Green can not. That's the difference. Big Ben prays to Baal or some god every game to grant him the will to win games.

Big Ben would have stopped the Priest Holmes fumble and forced the Colts to punt once.

keg in kc · 02-10-2009, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Please explain how you came to the conclusion that Stafford and/or Sanchez are "statistically probable disappointments."

That's what the discussion should really be about. Whether Thigpen is a franchise quarterback (my vote would be 'anything is possible' with a heavy slant towards 'probably not'). Which would then beg the question of whether a franchise quarterback will be available at 3. It should be a discussion specific to the players at hand.

To answer my own question, Stafford may be. Although I don't think as highly of him as I did of Ryan last year. I wouldn't have a problem with the pick, though.

I don't think Sanchez has played enough to warrant a top-5 pick, and I think he needs to go somewhere with an established starter so he can have time to sit on the sidelines for a couple of years. That's clearly not KC at this point. On the other hand, in the end, if they feel strongly enough about him to spend the pick, I wouldn't have a problem with it.

What I see when I look at the top of this draft is a lack of guys that shout 'star' to me. Which is kind of a shame, picking 3rd and all.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 02-10-2009, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doomy3

Do you have any of these answers? I am very curious about these.

Since 2000:

2000: # of QBs: 12.
QBs taken out of the first round: 11.
Successful QBs out of first round: 2.

2001: # of QBs 11
QBs taken out of the first round: 10
Successful QBs out of first round 1 (Drew Brees, taken in the first pick of the second round)

2002: # of QBs: 15
QBs taken out of the first round: 13
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 1 (David Garrard...wow)

2003: # of QBs: 13
QBs taken out of the first round: 11
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 0

So, in those four years, we have 51 QBs taken, 45 of which were out of the first round. Of those 45, 3 were decent QBs, 1 was a Hall of Famer.

Clearly, a success rate of 8.9% is better than 33%, especially given that players in other positions never bust, like you know, left tackle.

If anyone else wants to do '04-'08, feel free.

Just Passin' By · 02-10-2009, 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

#1 Look up how many Super Bowls have been won with first round draft picks at QB

#2 Look up how many Super Bowls have been won by top 5 picks at QB

#3 Take the entire rest of the draft in the same time period, and show me the success/failure rate of those QBs

#4 Show me the safety of all these other high picks. Like LT. You know, the position of Leonard Davis, Robert Gallery, and Mike Williams?

#5: Show me a situation where a franchise should be totally risk averse, and how well it pays off for them.

#1/2/3: Well, this decade, Brady (6th round pick) and Johnson (9th round) have combined for 4 of the 8 Super Bowl wins. The other 4 have gone to Big Ben (2), Manning (1) and Manning (1), so the first round has no clear cut edge here.

#4: Leonard Davis turned into a Pro Bowl guard. If you're going to put him into a negative/bust category, you're clearly not going to be objective about this and I'm not going to waste my time breaking down other positions.

#5 This doesn't even warrant an answer.

orange · 02-10-2009, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR

I still want to know what Brees could have done to make the Saints win more games this season.

More yards? Less INTs? Completion percentage? What?

He should have tackled better, obviously.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 02-10-2009, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smed1065

I agree but Versus SB winners in in the last 7 years?

Roethlisberger*2 and both Mannings, sprinkled around two from Brady and one for Brad Johnson.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 02-10-2009, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

#1/2/3: Well, this decade, Brady (6th round pick) and Johnson (9th round) have combined for 4 of the 8 Super Bowl wins. The other 4 have gone to Big Ben (2), Manning (1) and Manning (1), so the first round has no clear cut edge here.

#4: Leonard Davis turned into a Pro Bowl guard. If you're going to put him into a negative/bust category, you're clearly not going to be objective about this and I'm not going to waste my time breaking down other positions.

#5 This doesn't even warrant an answer.

So, the entire success rate of every other round in the draft equating to the same chance of a Super Bowl win as a 1st rounder, somehow means that you are just as probable with a QB not in the first round?

Yeah, you might have a point if a team spent picks on rounds 2-7 on QB.

Show me where guards are worth the #2 overall pick in the draft and that contract. Please.

**DeezNutz** · 02-10-2009, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

#1/2/3: Well, this decade, Brady (6th round pick) and Johnson (9th round) have combined for 4 of the 8 Super Bowl wins. The other 4 have gone to Big Ben (2), Manning (1) and Manning (1), so the first round has no clear cut edge here.

#4: Leonard Davis turned into a Pro Bowl guard. If you're going to put him into a negative/bust category, you're clearly not going to be objective about this and I'm not going to waste my time breaking down other positions.

#5 This doesn't even warrant an answer.

50 percent of the SB's have been won by a top 10 pick, yet this is "no clear cut edge" when it's Tom ****ing Brady toting the water for basically the other half?

Well, as long as we're being intellectually honest with each other...

Just Passin' By · 02-10-2009, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Since 2000:

2000: # of QBs: 12.
QBs taken out of the first round: 11.
Successful QBs out of first round: 2.

2001: # of QBs 11
QBs taken out of the first round: 10
Successful QBs out of first round 1 (Drew Brees, taken in the first pick of the second round)

2002: # of QBs: 15
QBs taken out of the first round: 13
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 1 (David Garrard...wow)

2003: # of QBs: 13
QBs taken out of the first round: 11
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 0

So, in those four years, we have 51 QBs taken, 45 of which were out of the first round. Of those 45, 3 were decent QBs, 1 was a Hall of Famer.

Clearly, a success rate of 8.9% is better than 33%, especially given that players in other positions never bust, like you know, left tackle.

If anyone else wants to do '04-'08, feel free.

Choosing not to draft Sanchez is not the same as choosing to draft someone in a lower round. What you're showing is that getting a successful quarterback ANYWHERE in the draft is a difficult task. People already know that. By the way, the most successful QB of the decade was a 6th round pick.

keg in kc · 02-10-2009, 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

#1/2/3: Well, this decade, Brady (6th round pick) and Johnson (9th round) have combined for 4 of the 8 Super Bowl wins. The other 4 have gone to Big Ben (2), Manning (1) and Manning (1), so the first round has no clear cut edge here.

I have a feeling the reply will be that Brady, as the 6th round aberration, is the exception that proves the rule, that franchise quarterbacks have won 7 of the last 8 superbowls, with Johnson being the odd dog out.

**DeezNutz** · 02-10-2009, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keg in kc

I have a feeling the reply will be that Brady, as the 6th round aberration, is the exception that proves the rule, that franchise quarterbacks have won 7 of the last 8 superbowls, with Johnson being the odd dog out.

You chose...wisely.

Just Passin' By · 02-10-2009, 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

50 percent of the SB's have been won by a top 10 pick, yet this is "no clear cut edge" when it's Tom ****ing Brady toting the water for basically the other half?

Well, as long as we're being intellectually honest with each other...

Brady and Johnson make 2 people. Manning/Manning/Ben are 3 people. Even if you only credit that way, it's still only 3-2 in winners, which is still a pretty even split.

As for Tom ****ing Brady, isn't his being on the list really the point? I don't think Thigpen will ever be Brady, but I don't think Sanchez will, either. Do you?

**OnTheWarpath15** · 02-10-2009, 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Since 2000:

2000: # of QBs: 12.
QBs taken out of the first round: 11.
Successful QBs out of first round: 2.

2001: # of QBs 11
QBs taken out of the first round: 10
Successful QBs out of first round 1 (Drew Brees, taken in the first pick of the second round)

2002: # of QBs: 15
QBs taken out of the first round: 13
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 1 (David Garrard...wow)

2003: # of QBs: 13
QBs taken out of the first round: 11
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 0

So, in those four years, we have 51 QBs taken, 45 of which were out of the first round. Of those 45, 3 were decent QBs, 1 was a Hall of Famer.

Clearly, a success rate of 8.9% is better than 33%, especially given that players in other positions never bust, like you know, left tackle.

If anyone else wants to do '04-'08, feel free.

2004: # of QBs: 17
QBs taken out of the first round: 14
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 1, if you count Matt Schaub.

2005: # of QBs: 14
QBs taken out of the first round: 11
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 1, if you count Matt Cassel.

2006: # of QBs: 12
QBs taken out of the first round: 9
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 0

2007: # of QBs: 11
QBs taken out of the first round: 9
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 2, if you count Edwards and Thigpen.

So BEST case scenario (Assuming you think guys like Thigpen are considered successful) is:

# of QBs: 54
QBs taken out of the first round: 43
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 0 - 4.

At worst, 0%

At best, 9.3%

'Hamas' Jenkins · 02-10-2009, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

Choosing not to draft Sanchez is not the same as choosing to draft someone in a lower round. What you're showing is that getting a successful quarterback ANYWHERE in the draft is a difficult task. People already know that. By the way, the most successful QB of the decade was a 6th round pick.

No, I'm not.

I'm showing that trying to get a successful QB in a round past the first becomes incredibly more difficult, and it's borne out by a relatively quick glance at the trends and statistics of success at the position.

But hey, if Andre Smith busts we can move him to right guard, so that somehow justifies the risk/reward for him, right?

Just Passin' By · 02-10-2009, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

2004: # of QBs: 17
QBs taken out of the first round: 14
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 1, if you count Matt Schaub.

2005: # of QBs: 14
QBs taken out of the first round: 11
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 1, if you count Matt Cassel.

2006: # of QBs: 12
QBs taken out of the first round: 9
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 0

2007: # of QBs: 11
QBs taken out of the first round: 9
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 2, if you count Edwards and Thigpen.

So BEST case scenario (Assuming you think guys like Thigpen are considered successful) is:

# of QBs: 54
QBs taken out of the first round: 43
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 0 - 4.

At worst, 0%

At best, 9.3%

Kyle Orton and Derek Anderson were also in 2005.

02-10-2009, 04:53 PM
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-742950	What's with the Thigpen fixation? Now I fully admit it isn't as bad as I thought it was going to be on this forum but I've yet to figure out this fixation with him. It's really bad at some other unnamed forums.. I honestly have no way of comprehending what it's about. It's like everything people said about Croyle has now been lumped onto Thigpen. "Well um he's the guy we don't need another QB" The worst part is the people who don't want a QB this year then say well if Thigpen doesn't work out we can just take Bradford or McCoy, it's like peoples brains fell out.
Posts: 115,387

02-10-2009, 11:24 PM	#586
RealSNR Special Teams ACE!!! Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Where the hell is SNR Casino cash: $-1574792	If only we had a QB like Big Ben who wills his team to win big games in 2003 against the Colts. Trent Green clearly didn't care about winning enough to drive the Chiefs down the field and win a close game. It was all his fault. Ben Roethlisberger can win close games. Trent Green can not. That's the difference. Big Ben prays to Baal or some god every game to grant him the will to win games. Big Ben would have stopped the Priest Holmes fumble and forced the Colts to punt once.
Posts: 93,458