4 NFL Scouts Rate The Players - Page 3

Chiefnj2 · 04-13-2009, 09:22 AM

http://spartannation.com/?p=6083

Four of my friends who are NFL scouts (or personnel people) agreed to give me their top twenty players at this point of the off-season process leading up to the draft. They represent four different teams.

I will keep each of their identities confidential as you can imagine that their respective teams wouldn’t appreciate their participation in this endeavor. All I asked from them was that they give me their personal top twenty and why they like them. I weighed all four lists and put them in the appropriate order.

This list is not the order that I think they will be drafted, it is simply four men who get paid to do this for a living and who they think are the best twenty. I will also post early in the week something that we have never had before. We will have a list of the top three players at all positions other than the special teams.

I will also have them all give me a mock first round draft for each team, as the draft gets closer. Obviously they know other teams better than any of us, so I have asked each for their mock draft and why they think each team does what. As with this list, I will weigh each of their picks and see if there is consensus on what they think. I will (as similar to this list) post at least one of their comments about each pick.

One scout had an interesting take last year that I want to share with all of you about the draft process. He said, “The way we draft is what do we need and who on the board at the time we pick fits a need the best. For example, Calvin Johnson was the best player in the draft on our board last year but had we been Detroit we wouldn’t have taken him. With the huge needs at offensive tackle and middle backer, we would have taken Joe Thomas or Patrick Willis. Both had Pro Bowl seasons. Now some pundits would have said those guys would have been too high of picks for the money (and we would have tried trading down) but would the Lions have been better off with either those two than Calvin? I sure think so. We draft (and have been successful) at picking guys that meet needs with priority given to lineman if we have a need there. I based my list on who best fits needs.”

Here are some interesting stats about the list. All four scouts say that they place a high importance on a pure franchise QB (of which none listed any QB as a top notch franchise pick such as Peyton Manning) and on offensive and defensive lines. Cornerback was also a position of high value. Something I learned was that offensive tackles, defensive tackles, defensive ends and cornerbacks all had a higher point of value (other than a sure fire franchise QB) to all four of our contributors.

Although I may not agree with this list, but over the years we have posted them, they have been extremely accurate and correct. I thank each of the men in advance.

Here is how the top twenty broke down as far as position.

Defensive Line 7
Offensive Line 4
Defensive Back 1
Running Back 1
Line Backer 3
Quarterback 0
Wide Receiver 3
Tight End 1

Click the link to see the top 20 players.

**Reaper16** · 04-13-2009, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by melbar

I'm not gonna disagree. I hope he does well and improves. Thats not to say that he doesnt share a lot of that blame. Ryan said that he still has motivational issues. I still dont think he was a better pick than Ryan, Long, Long, or Dorsey last year. You just dont take a player who has lazy lapses on the field that high. He certainly has the talent though.

I can't disagree.

htismaqe · 04-13-2009, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by melbar

I think the point most of us have made is that the value has to be measured against the other players in THIS draft. I get the concern about rushing, but again if you watch the tape most of the time he was double teamed and they ran away from him. We need a rusher, but the questions with the few 1st round rushers are more numerous where as Curry is pretty solid in every aspect and you're just not sure about 1 phase.

If you value your pick against the other players in THIS draft, then you've already diminished the value of YOUR player.

"Well, he's not great, but he's better than the rest of this heap."

Better than "bad" does not equal "good".

Chiefnj2 · 04-13-2009, 11:50 AM

This was the compilation of the 4 scouts last year:

1. Jake Long OT UM Drafted 1st.
2. Chris Long DE Virginia drafted 2nd
3. Glen Dorsey DT LSU Drafted 5th
4. Darren McFadden RB ARK Drafted 4th
5. Vernon Gholston DE OSU Drafted 6th
6. Aqib Talib CB Kansas Drafted 20th
7. Sedrick Ellis DT USC Drafted 7th
8. Branden Albert OL Virginia Drafted 15th
9. Derrick Harvey DE Florida Drafted 8th
10. Ryan Clady OT Boise State Drafted 12th.
11. Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt Drafted 14th
12. Rashard Mendenhall RB ILL Drafted 23rd
13. Leodis McKelvin DB Troy Drafted 11th
14. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State Drafted 16th
15. Phillip Merling DE Clemson Drafted 32nd
16. Devin Thomas WR Michigan State Drafted 34th
17. Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee Drafted 10th
18. Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh Drafted 19th
19. Mike Jenkins CB South Florida Drafted 25th
20. Matt Ryan QB BC Taken 3rd.

16 were taken in the top 20.
2 between 20 and 25.
2 came in at 32nd, 34th.

CoMoChief · 04-13-2009, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Duck Dog

They were scouted they just didn't make the top 20.

And why's that? BECAUSE SANCHEZ SUCKS!!!!!!

FD · 04-13-2009, 12:01 PM

Apparently Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe are football players. Interesting analysis.

philfree · 04-13-2009, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I want to trade down, but since I know you're going to introduce the "we can't trade down" hypothetical like always, I'll play.

Sanchez and Stafford for sure.

I've also moved Raji out and replace him with Crabtree. So there's 3 I'd take before Curry.

I've posted I'd like to trade down too but if that don't work out then we'll be picking at #3. The bolded part is a fair answer. It scares me paying that much guaranteed money to a guy who just had a screw put in his foot. I like Crabtree though. Of course you know how I feel about Sanchex and since we have Cassel I don't see us taking Stafford. Those guys are good trade bait though. No Raji at #3 either. To me if we can't trade down it's Curry. And I'd really like to trade down. But if we can't I think Curry will be a very good player and he has the upside of being great. I'm also really intrigued with Andre Smith as a RT prospect even though he'd be high dollar for that position. And then there's Orakpo. Who ever we pick I'l try and be open minded about it.

PhilFree

philfree · 04-13-2009, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

If you value your pick against the other players in THIS draft, then you've already diminished the value of YOUR player.

"Well, he's not great, but he's better than the rest of this heap."

Better than "bad" does not equal "good".

I'd like a more in depth explanation of that. I want to be sure I understand what you are saying and what the value of the players in the 2009 draft are measured to.

PhilFree

htismaqe · 04-13-2009, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree

I've posted I'd like to trade down too but if that don't work out then we'll be picking at #3. The bolded part is a fair answer. It scares me paying that much guaranteed money to a guy who just had a screw put in his foot. I like Crabtree though. Of course you know how I feel about Sanchex and since we have Cassel I don't see us taking Stafford. Those guys are good trade bait though. No Raji at #3 either. To me if we can't trade down it's Curry. And I'd really like to trade down. But if we can't I think Curry will be a very good player and he has the upside of being great. I'm also really intrigued with Andre Smith as a RT prospect even though he'd be high dollar for that position. And then there's Orakpo.

I guess I'd rather have Curry over Orakpo (he's got bust written all over him) or another LT (I don't want to move Albert for any reason). But that's about it. I'd be inclined to take SIGNIFCANTLY less than draft chart value to trade down at this point, that's how much the top of this draft means to me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree

Who ever we pick I'l try and be open minded about it.

Now this I can agree with.

htismaqe · 04-13-2009, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree

I'd like a more in depth explanation of that. I want to be sure I understand what you are saying and what the value of the players in the 2009 draft are measured to.

PhilFree

They HAVE to be measured to all of the drafts that preceeded them, or at least the most recent drafts that reflect the latest historical trends.

philfree · 04-13-2009, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

They HAVE to be measured to all of the drafts that preceeded them, or at least the most recent drafts that reflect the latest historical trends.

I don't think one can just ignore the actual players in the draft to make their selection. We'll find out soon enough but there's a good chance that Curry is picked in the top five of this draft. You don't think there is a chance that Curry will go in the top five? There's a pretty good chance that what happens in the top of this draft won't immulate history to a "T".

PhilFree

htismaqe · 04-13-2009, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree

I don't think one can just ignore the actual players in the draft to make their selection.

I'm not suggesting anything of the sort. I'm only saying that you have to evaluate them compared to not only this draft, but previous drafts as well. If the most physically talented player in this draft were a TE or FB, would you take them in the Top 5? Because that's precisely what is being talked about here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree

We'll find out soon enough but there's a good chance that Curry is picked in the top five of this draft. You don't think there is a chance that Curry will go in the top five? There's a pretty good chance that what happens in the top of this draft won't immulate history to a "T".

I absolutely think some team will be taking him Top 5. And 4 years from now, the fans will be bitching about it, just like DJ.

Mecca · 04-13-2009, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Forward Dante

Apparently Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe are football players. Interesting analysis.

I'd hope so, I mean I'd hope I wasn't drafting a chimney sweep.

And that Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Pat Willis thing is mind numbing. If that guy really thinks that he's a dolt.

Chiefnj2 · 04-13-2009, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

I'd hope so, I mean I'd hope I wasn't drafting a chimney sweep.

And that Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Pat Willis thing is mind numbing. If that guy really thinks that he's a dolt.

A LOT isn't more valuable than a WR?

Mecca · 04-13-2009, 03:57 PM

Depends on the WR...Calvin Johnson no, Calvin Johnson is a once in 20 years type of prospect.

If you haven't noticed the LT position is seeing alot of top prospects every year now.

JohnnyV13 · 04-14-2009, 12:04 PM

I agree with Mecca on this one. Calvin Johnson is the sort of WR i've never seen. I mean 239 AND runs under 4.4? That's sick.

He's also got rare agility for a guy his size. To put this in perspective, CJ is 239 and Shannon Sharpe went 228.

04-13-2009, 09:22 AM
Chiefnj2 In Search of a Life Join Date: Mar 2007 Casino cash: $6654388	4 NFL Scouts Rate The Players http://spartannation.com/?p=6083 Four of my friends who are NFL scouts (or personnel people) agreed to give me their top twenty players at this point of the off-season process leading up to the draft. They represent four different teams. I will keep each of their identities confidential as you can imagine that their respective teams wouldn’t appreciate their participation in this endeavor. All I asked from them was that they give me their personal top twenty and why they like them. I weighed all four lists and put them in the appropriate order. This list is not the order that I think they will be drafted, it is simply four men who get paid to do this for a living and who they think are the best twenty. I will also post early in the week something that we have never had before. We will have a list of the top three players at all positions other than the special teams. I will also have them all give me a mock first round draft for each team, as the draft gets closer. Obviously they know other teams better than any of us, so I have asked each for their mock draft and why they think each team does what. As with this list, I will weigh each of their picks and see if there is consensus on what they think. I will (as similar to this list) post at least one of their comments about each pick. One scout had an interesting take last year that I want to share with all of you about the draft process. He said, “The way we draft is what do we need and who on the board at the time we pick fits a need the best. For example, Calvin Johnson was the best player in the draft on our board last year but had we been Detroit we wouldn’t have taken him. With the huge needs at offensive tackle and middle backer, we would have taken Joe Thomas or Patrick Willis. Both had Pro Bowl seasons. Now some pundits would have said those guys would have been too high of picks for the money (and we would have tried trading down) but would the Lions have been better off with either those two than Calvin? I sure think so. We draft (and have been successful) at picking guys that meet needs with priority given to lineman if we have a need there. I based my list on who best fits needs.” Here are some interesting stats about the list. All four scouts say that they place a high importance on a pure franchise QB (of which none listed any QB as a top notch franchise pick such as Peyton Manning) and on offensive and defensive lines. Cornerback was also a position of high value. Something I learned was that offensive tackles, defensive tackles, defensive ends and cornerbacks all had a higher point of value (other than a sure fire franchise QB) to all four of our contributors. Although I may not agree with this list, but over the years we have posted them, they have been extremely accurate and correct. I thank each of the men in advance. Here is how the top twenty broke down as far as position. Defensive Line 7 Offensive Line 4 Defensive Back 1 Running Back 1 Line Backer 3 Quarterback 0 Wide Receiver 3 Tight End 1 Click the link to see the top 20 players.
Posts: 22,541

04-13-2009, 11:50 AM	#33
Chiefnj2 In Search of a Life Join Date: Mar 2007 Casino cash: $6654388	This was the compilation of the 4 scouts last year: 1. Jake Long OT UM Drafted 1st. 2. Chris Long DE Virginia drafted 2nd 3. Glen Dorsey DT LSU Drafted 5th 4. Darren McFadden RB ARK Drafted 4th 5. Vernon Gholston DE OSU Drafted 6th 6. Aqib Talib CB Kansas Drafted 20th 7. Sedrick Ellis DT USC Drafted 7th 8. Branden Albert OL Virginia Drafted 15th 9. Derrick Harvey DE Florida Drafted 8th 10. Ryan Clady OT Boise State Drafted 12th. 11. Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt Drafted 14th 12. Rashard Mendenhall RB ILL Drafted 23rd 13. Leodis McKelvin DB Troy Drafted 11th 14. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State Drafted 16th 15. Phillip Merling DE Clemson Drafted 32nd 16. Devin Thomas WR Michigan State Drafted 34th 17. Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee Drafted 10th 18. Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh Drafted 19th 19. Mike Jenkins CB South Florida Drafted 25th 20. Matt Ryan QB BC Taken 3rd. 16 were taken in the top 20. 2 between 20 and 25. 2 came in at 32nd, 34th. __________________ Mismanaging the clock.
Posts: 22,541

04-13-2009, 12:01 PM	#35
FD Veteran Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Indiana Casino cash: $9372813	Apparently Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe are football players. Interesting analysis.
Posts: 4,440

04-13-2009, 03:57 PM	#44
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-722950	Depends on the WR...Calvin Johnson no, Calvin Johnson is a once in 20 years type of prospect. If you haven't noticed the LT position is seeing alot of top prospects every year now.
Posts: 115,380

04-14-2009, 12:04 PM	#45
JohnnyV13 Veteran Join Date: May 2003 Location: Tucson AZ Casino cash: $5385200	I agree with Mecca on this one. Calvin Johnson is the sort of WR i've never seen. I mean 239 AND runs under 4.4? That's sick. He's also got rare agility for a guy his size. To put this in perspective, CJ is 239 and Shannon Sharpe went 228.
Posts: 4,222