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Old 05-20-2009, 11:18 AM   #1
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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According to Petro the stats said the Royals had a 1% chance to win that game.
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Old 05-20-2009, 11:23 AM   #2
DeezNutz DeezNutz is offline
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
According to Petro the stats said the Royals had a 1% chance to win that game.
Probably the same graph that alnorth uses.
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Old 05-20-2009, 01:07 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
Probably the same graph that alnorth uses.
speaking of which, here is that beautiful graph.



The Royals hit a low of 1.7% after Guillen grounded out to start the 9th. (Kinda surprised it was that high. 1.7% chance of winning down 3 runs bases empty with 2 outs left? Really?) After Teahen's homer, we were still only up to 11%.

Not surprisingly, the computer says that the 2 most important at-bats of the game were the last 2.
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Old 05-20-2009, 11:32 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
According to Petro the stats said the Royals had a 1% chance to win that game.
i would think it would be lower than 1% considering I have seen 140 or so games where they are down 3 in the 9th and they lost
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