Royals Greinke is in an arms race for the AL Cy Young - Page 2

Deberg_1990 · 10-06-2009, 10:39 AM

Why do i just get this feeling Greinke is going to get jobbed??

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/1492136.html

Votes are due today, so it’s a good time to look at perhaps the most interesting American League Cy Young race in years.

Zack Greinke, with a strong cyber-push from various baseball observers, at one point looked like a near lock. He’s still the favorite, but the weekend put doubt back in the minds of some.

First, Greinke gave up four runs in six innings at Minnesota, a game shown on national TV, a game Greinke called his biggest of the season. The defense didn’t help him much, and there is no shame in giving up the key hit to MVP-to-be Joe Mauer. But, still: If there are voters looking for a reason to not vote for Greinke, they probably will cite an underwhelming final start.

Then came Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, who gave up two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings Sunday, winning his 19th game — a total that tied for the league lead — and finishing with a 2.49 ERA.

Greinke has the American League’s lowest ERA at 2.16, but he trails by three in wins. No AL Cy Young winner has trailed by three wins since the award split to each league in 1967, and that’s the issue.

The case for Zack

This one’s pretty easy, and steeped in statistics and anecdotes.

Greinke’s 2.16 ERA is the best in the American League by a third of a run, and the lowest since Boston’s Pedro Martinez in 2000. There are five seasons since the 1994 strike that an AL pitcher has led in ERA by a third of a run with 200 innings, and all five won the Cy Young.

Greinke has by far the best statistical case, leading the league in ERA and walks and hits per innings pitched, and ranking second in strikeouts, strikeouts per walks, “quality starts,” shutouts, complete games and batting average against. He’s also last in run support while pitching in front of what advanced metrics rate as the league’s worst defense and a bullpen with the highest ERA.

It’s been written before, but outside of poisoning his food, it’s hard to think of how Greinke’s teammates could have helped him less.

Greinke had a 2.35 ERA in his no-decisions — that’s lower than anybody else’s overall ERA. Put another way, he has nine starts where he’s given up a total of 10 runs without getting a win.

There are some notions that Greinke hasn’t faced good enough competition, a silly thought when you consider he went 7-4 with a 1.50 ERA against winning teams.

Actually, Greinke has been so dominant this year that the real question shouldn’t be whether he’s the best pitcher in the league — of course he is — but to where his season ranks historically.

Here is the list of pitchers who have matched Greinke’s totals in innings, strikeouts and adjusted ERA+, which takes into account league and ballpark factors: Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, Ron Guidry, Dwight Gooden, Martinez and Roger Clemens.

Or, you can always go to Eric Wedge. He managed the AL’s last two Cy Young winners with Cleveland, and he called Greinke’s 15-strikeout demolition of the Indians in August the best game he’d ever seen pitched in the big leagues.

It was a good game, to be sure. But, depending on how you judge, it’s just the sixth-best game he pitched this season.

The case against Zack

The greatness of Greinke went national this year, but the rest of the country did not live the every-fifth-game holiday like Kansas City did.

No matter what we know about the misleading nature of wins, that category is historically tied closer to the Cy Young Award than any other — including ERA.

Eight of the 14 AL winners since the strike have led or tied for the league lead in wins. Only five have led in ERA, three of whom also led in wins.

Greinke’s 16 wins are three off the league leaders, and only one AL winner since the strike has trailed by more than one win. That was Martinez in 2000, when he went 18-6 with a 1.74 ERA and 284 strikeouts in 217 innings — one of the best pitching seasons of all time.

For voters tied to wins, Hernandez provides good cover. He’s been better this season than many past Cy Young winners — tied for the lead with 19 wins, second with a 2.49 ERA, third with 238 2/3 innings, and fourth with 217 strikeouts. He’s the only pitcher to rank in the top five in each of those categories, and he has 23 “quality starts” in his last 24.

ESPN.com’s Cy Young predictor, put together by Rob Neyer and Bill James, has Hernandez winning.

Greinke pitched for one of the worst teams in the league, and the Royals were just 17-16 in his starts. If a voter can convince himself that Greinke’s stats don’t blow away the field, the Royals’ struggles may be the tie breaker that leans away from Greinke.

There are arguments to be made for others, too. Detroit’s Justin Verlander leads in wins, strikeouts and innings and won the Tigers’ biggest game of the year on three days’ rest on Sunday. Toronto’s Roy Halladay threw nine complete games and four shutouts with a 2.79 ERA. New York’s Mariano Rivera converted 44 of 46 saves for the best team in baseball, with 72 strikeouts and just 12 walks.

Hootie · 10-06-2009, 11:30 AM

as Kansas City fans...Chiefs...Royals...doesn't matter...we DESERVE something for ****'s sake.

**gblowfish** · 10-06-2009, 11:33 AM

I'm just sayin, to most of MLB, KC might as well be in Siberia. Greinke has to do better than pitchers that have good teams behind them. Sure, he'd win hands down if he pitched for NY, or Boston, or the LA Angels. But he doesn't. So he has to be extra special to outshine all these other guys. Winning under pressure counts in the minds of baseball writers. When the heat was on, and it was time to show his stuff, he got beat. End of story. Doesn't mean he's not one of the best in baseball, he just doesn't matter to the majority of the league.

Hootie · 10-06-2009, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

I'm just sayin, to most of MLB, KC might as well be in Siberia. Greinke has to do better than pitchers that have good teams behind them. Sure, he'd win hands down if he pitched for NY, or Boston, or the LA Angels. But he doesn't. So he has to be extra special to outshine all these other guys. Winning under pressure counts in the minds of baseball writers. When the heat was on, and it was time to show his stuff, he got beat. End of story. Doesn't mean he's not one of the best in baseball, he just doesn't matter to the majority of the league.

when the heat was on against Boston earlier this month and Detroit a few weeks later...he had 11 IP, 0 ER, and about 95 K's...

If the Cy Young comes down to ONE ND...than **** the baseball writers of America.

I'd bet $50 right now he'll win it...he has to.

**Reaper16** · 10-06-2009, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

I'm just sayin, to most of MLB, KC might as well be in Siberia. Greinke has to do better than pitchers that have good teams behind them. Sure, he'd win hands down if he pitched for NY, or Boston, or the LA Angels. But he doesn't. So he has to be extra special to outshine all these other guys. Winning under pressure counts in the minds of baseball writers. When the heat was on, and it was time to show his stuff, he got beat. End of story. Doesn't mean he's not one of the best in baseball, he just doesn't matter to the majority of the league.

If this thread were a discussion in a bar, I would break a bottle over your face and start throwing punches at you.

Saying that voters might have a large-market bias is not an argument against Zack. Also, your presumption that Zack's final start was the only one hwere he was "under pressure" is false.

I can't tell if you believe the things you're saying or if you're just passing along what you feel the majority of voters think. Either way, if they do think that then the Cy Young is a worthless award.

**gblowfish** · 10-06-2009, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reaper16

If this thread were a discussion in a bar, I would break a bottle over your face and start throwing punches at you.

Or sure, you might get away with that now that I'm 50. I was a bar bouncer in Columbia at Mizzou for four years back in the late 70s, so bring it on, Jasper...

I hope he wins too. I'm just realistic enough to know that KC is considered a AAAA team at best. Not even in the discussion as a legit MLB franchise. You have Royal Blue Colored glasses on.

**Reaper16** · 10-06-2009, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Or sure, you might get away with that now that I'm 50. I was a bar bouncer in Columbia at Mizzou for four years back in the late 70s, so bring it on, Jasper...

I hope he wins too. I'm just realistic enough to know that KC is considered a AAAA team at best. Not even in the discussion as a legit MLB franchise. You have Royal Blue Colored glasses on.

Blind mother****ers with no need for colored glasses can tell that Zack is the only possible option (if voters were to take the award seriously).

Demonpenz · 10-06-2009, 12:03 PM

I am going to hire Chigurh if he loses

beer bacon · 10-06-2009, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

I am going to hire Chigurh if he loses

I'm going back in time to acquire the services of Judge Holden if Greinke gets jobbed.

penchief · 10-06-2009, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Sure, he'd win hands down if he pitched for NY.

That's not really true. Whether some people will admit it or not there is an anti-Yankee bias in much of the media. And there is a pro-Red Sox bias. Jeter got jobbed a few years back when Morneau won it. His numbers were far superior to Pedroia who won it last year for doing pretty much what Jeter does but not as well.

A couple of historical examples. Guidry's great season in '78 when he went 25-3 with a 1.79 ERA was the sole reason the yankees won the penant that year. If ever a pitcher was going to get MVP that would have been it. But they saw fit to give the MVP to Jim Rice. Not really a big deal. The MVP is for position players, right?

However, just a few years later when Clemens had a seaon nowhere near as dominating as Guidry's, he gets the MVP over Mattingly who has an unbelievable year. Mattingly's numbers were far superior to Rice's and Guidry's were far superior to Clemens' numbers.

Unless it's just so obvious the writers will give it somebody other than a Yankee any time it's close, IMO.

I'd feel pretty good about Greinke's chances if I were you. He deserves it.

**Reaper16** · 10-06-2009, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by penchief

That's not really true. Whether some people will admit it or not there is an anti-Yankee bias in much of the media. And there is a pro-Red Sox bias. Jeter got jobbed a few years back when Morneau won it. His numbers were far superior to Pedroia who won it last year for doing pretty much what Jeter does but not as well.

A couple of historical examples. Guidry's great season in '78 when he went 25-3 with a 1.79 ERA was the sole reason the yankees won the penant that year. If ever a pitcher was going to get MVP that would have been it. But they saw fit to give the MVP to Jim Rice. Not really a big deal. The MVP is for position players, right?

However, just a few years later when Clemens had a seaon nowhere near as dominating as Guidry's, he gets the MVP over Mattingly who has an unbelievable year. Mattingly's numbers were far superior to Rice's and Guidry's were far superior to Clemens' numbers.

Unless it's just so obvious the writers will give it somebody other than a Yankee any time it's close, IMO.

I'd feel pretty good about Greinke's chances if I were you. He deserves it.

Different awards. MVP is a really, really subjective award and always has been. Cy Young has (or should have) no such subjectivity.

penchief · 10-06-2009, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reaper16

Different awards. MVP is a really, really subjective award and always has been. Cy Young has (or should have) no such subjectivity.

Just trying to illustrate my point about anti-Yankee bias among a lot of baseball writers. If the shoe had been reversed Mattingly would have won the MVP over Clemens and Guidry would have one the MVP over Rice. No matter which logic you try to use, the Red Sox got the benefit of that logic.

That said, Greinke deserves the Cy Young. IMO, he'll get it. Especially if he's competing against Sabbathia's 19 wins. Sabbathia's ERA is strike one against him, his bad outing to finish the season is strike two, and the fact that he's a Yankee is strike three.

**Reaper16** · 10-06-2009, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by penchief

Just trying to illustrate my point about anti-Yankee bias among a lot of baseball writers. If the shoe had been reversed Mattingly would have won the MVP over Clemens and Guidry would have one the MVP over Rice. No matter which logic you try to use, the Red Sox got the benefit of that logic.

That said, Greinke deserves the Cy Young. IMO, he'll get it. Especially if he's competing against Sabbathia's 19 wins. Sabbathia's ERA is strike one against him, his bad outing to finish the season is strike two, and the fact that he's a Yankee is strike three.

He's no longer competing against CC. CC has no chance. Verlander and King Felix have 19 wins, too, while putting up better numbers. King Felix has been like Greinke-light this season; he's very, very good.

**DeezNutz** · 10-06-2009, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reaper16

There is actually zero argument against Zack that holds up to any scrutiny at all. If the Cy Young award has shifted from recognizing the best individual pitching performance in a given season to recognizing a good pitcher for a good team then I have no reason to give a **** about it anymore.

Yep.

The legitimacy of the Cy Young hangs in the balance. If Greinke gets ****ed, the award will cease to exist from my perspective.

sedated · 10-06-2009, 01:42 PM

In 2003 or 2004, who was the royals pitcher who had 9 wins at the break, but still got sent down to the minors because his ERA was over 7?

BigCatDaddy · 10-06-2009, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedated

In 2003 or 2004, who was the royals pitcher who had 9 wins at the break, but still got sent down to the minors because his ERA was over 7?

Chris George?

10-06-2009, 10:39 AM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx. Casino cash: $64454	Greinke is in an arms race for the AL Cy Young Why do i just get this feeling Greinke is going to get jobbed?? http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/1492136.html Votes are due today, so it’s a good time to look at perhaps the most interesting American League Cy Young race in years. Zack Greinke, with a strong cyber-push from various baseball observers, at one point looked like a near lock. He’s still the favorite, but the weekend put doubt back in the minds of some. First, Greinke gave up four runs in six innings at Minnesota, a game shown on national TV, a game Greinke called his biggest of the season. The defense didn’t help him much, and there is no shame in giving up the key hit to MVP-to-be Joe Mauer. But, still: If there are voters looking for a reason to not vote for Greinke, they probably will cite an underwhelming final start. Then came Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, who gave up two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings Sunday, winning his 19th game — a total that tied for the league lead — and finishing with a 2.49 ERA. Greinke has the American League’s lowest ERA at 2.16, but he trails by three in wins. No AL Cy Young winner has trailed by three wins since the award split to each league in 1967, and that’s the issue. The case for Zack This one’s pretty easy, and steeped in statistics and anecdotes. Greinke’s 2.16 ERA is the best in the American League by a third of a run, and the lowest since Boston’s Pedro Martinez in 2000. There are five seasons since the 1994 strike that an AL pitcher has led in ERA by a third of a run with 200 innings, and all five won the Cy Young. Greinke has by far the best statistical case, leading the league in ERA and walks and hits per innings pitched, and ranking second in strikeouts, strikeouts per walks, “quality starts,” shutouts, complete games and batting average against. He’s also last in run support while pitching in front of what advanced metrics rate as the league’s worst defense and a bullpen with the highest ERA. It’s been written before, but outside of poisoning his food, it’s hard to think of how Greinke’s teammates could have helped him less. Greinke had a 2.35 ERA in his no-decisions — that’s lower than anybody else’s overall ERA. Put another way, he has nine starts where he’s given up a total of 10 runs without getting a win. There are some notions that Greinke hasn’t faced good enough competition, a silly thought when you consider he went 7-4 with a 1.50 ERA against winning teams. Actually, Greinke has been so dominant this year that the real question shouldn’t be whether he’s the best pitcher in the league — of course he is — but to where his season ranks historically. Here is the list of pitchers who have matched Greinke’s totals in innings, strikeouts and adjusted ERA+, which takes into account league and ballpark factors: Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, Ron Guidry, Dwight Gooden, Martinez and Roger Clemens. Or, you can always go to Eric Wedge. He managed the AL’s last two Cy Young winners with Cleveland, and he called Greinke’s 15-strikeout demolition of the Indians in August the best game he’d ever seen pitched in the big leagues. It was a good game, to be sure. But, depending on how you judge, it’s just the sixth-best game he pitched this season. The case against Zack The greatness of Greinke went national this year, but the rest of the country did not live the every-fifth-game holiday like Kansas City did. No matter what we know about the misleading nature of wins, that category is historically tied closer to the Cy Young Award than any other — including ERA. Eight of the 14 AL winners since the strike have led or tied for the league lead in wins. Only five have led in ERA, three of whom also led in wins. Greinke’s 16 wins are three off the league leaders, and only one AL winner since the strike has trailed by more than one win. That was Martinez in 2000, when he went 18-6 with a 1.74 ERA and 284 strikeouts in 217 innings — one of the best pitching seasons of all time. For voters tied to wins, Hernandez provides good cover. He’s been better this season than many past Cy Young winners — tied for the lead with 19 wins, second with a 2.49 ERA, third with 238 2/3 innings, and fourth with 217 strikeouts. He’s the only pitcher to rank in the top five in each of those categories, and he has 23 “quality starts” in his last 24. ESPN.com’s Cy Young predictor, put together by Rob Neyer and Bill James, has Hernandez winning. Greinke pitched for one of the worst teams in the league, and the Royals were just 17-16 in his starts. If a voter can convince himself that Greinke’s stats don’t blow away the field, the Royals’ struggles may be the tie breaker that leans away from Greinke. There are arguments to be made for others, too. Detroit’s Justin Verlander leads in wins, strikeouts and innings and won the Tigers’ biggest game of the year on three days’ rest on Sunday. Toronto’s Roy Halladay threw nine complete games and four shutouts with a 2.79 ERA. New York’s Mariano Rivera converted 44 of 46 saves for the best team in baseball, with 72 strikeouts and just 12 walks.
Posts: 68,713

10-06-2009, 11:30 AM	#16
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	as Kansas City fans...Chiefs...Royals...doesn't matter...we DESERVE something for ****'s sake.
Posts: 56,356

10-06-2009, 11:33 AM	#17
gblowfish Be Kind To Your Pets Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Glorious Independence, MO Casino cash: $16856178 VARSITY	I'm just sayin, to most of MLB, KC might as well be in Siberia. Greinke has to do better than pitchers that have good teams behind them. Sure, he'd win hands down if he pitched for NY, or Boston, or the LA Angels. But he doesn't. So he has to be extra special to outshine all these other guys. Winning under pressure counts in the minds of baseball writers. When the heat was on, and it was time to show his stuff, he got beat. End of story. Doesn't mean he's not one of the best in baseball, he just doesn't matter to the majority of the league.
Posts: 41,023

10-06-2009, 12:03 PM	#22
Demonpenz Woman should only make babies Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Apartment "G UNIT!" Casino cash: $-423864	I am going to hire Chigurh if he loses __________________
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