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Old 04-09-2010, 10:11 PM  
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What are the odds of KC drafting specific players?
Give me your odds, adding to 100 percent, of various players being drafted by the Chiefs in the first round.

I'll offer mine, without knowing much about the draft since I haven't bought my draft magazine yet.


The Chiefs' pick will be....


Jimmy Clauson - 29%
Eric Berry - 23%
Dan Williams - 21%
Brian Bulaga - 8%
Russell Okung - 6%
Gerald McCoy - 5%
Trent Williams - 3%
Ndamukong Suh - 1%
Earl Thomas - 1%
C.J. Spiller - 1%
Earl Thomas - 1%
Joe Haden - 1%
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Old 04-10-2010, 10:18 AM   #16
Ming the Merciless Ming the Merciless is offline
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Berry 30%
D williams 23%
Bulaga 17%
T williams 15%
Clausen 5%
Anyone else 10% (also I can add this onto any player to claim 'i knew it all along' and make myself look smarter after the draft)

edited my numbers a tad for the **** of it
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Old 04-10-2010, 01:23 PM   #17
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Trade Down - 30%
Clausen - 25%
Berry - 30%
D. Williams - 15%
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Old 04-10-2010, 01:37 PM   #18
Ming the Merciless Ming the Merciless is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightfyre View Post
Trade Down - 30%
Clausen - 25%
Berry - 30%
D. Williams - 15%

I would love to think that a trade down is 30% with the #5 overall....But a trade of a top 5 pick is pretty rare from what I understand....

It would be sick to trade down a few spots and still be in the top 10...
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Old 04-10-2010, 01:52 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Pawnmower View Post
Odds of you sucking that same players nuts and making a post in a few months telling everyone how 'you knew he would be a stud":

Incredibly also 99.9%
^^^
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Old 04-10-2010, 03:01 PM   #20
Nightfyre Nightfyre is offline
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Originally Posted by Pawnmower View Post
I would love to think that a trade down is 30% with the #5 overall....But a trade of a top 5 pick is pretty rare from what I understand....

It would be sick to trade down a few spots and still be in the top 10...
I didnt specify that we would get good value out of a trade down.
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Old 04-10-2010, 05:01 PM   #21
Ming the Merciless Ming the Merciless is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightfyre View Post
I didnt specify that we would get good value out of a trade down.
I didn't even mention value....Trading the #5 pick is pretty rare (has it only happened once in the history of the draft?)...

If you are trying to say there is a 30% chance we will trade down just to get more picks without regard the value of them...I would disagree. IF we make a trade we are going to get a good value in terms of picks. Otherwise there is no point in trading the pick.
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Old 04-10-2010, 05:13 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Mine aren't arbitrary. Mine are based on extensive discussions with Chiefs coaches and player personnel guys and a phone call to a telepsychic who helped me understand what the 4 teams ahead of the Chiefs are planning to do. My numbers reflect the infighting that is still going on at Chiefs HQ and the likelihood that any given advocacy group will eventually prevail.
You could have just called 1-800-ask-gary
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Old 04-10-2010, 05:19 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pawnmower View Post
I didn't even mention value....Trading the #5 pick is pretty rare (has it only happened once in the history of the draft?)...

If you are trying to say there is a 30% chance we will trade down just to get more picks without regard the value of them...I would disagree. IF we make a trade we are going to get a good value in terms of picks. Otherwise there is no point in trading the pick.
I could see how you would think that way if you had never listened to Pioli's approach to the draft. He doesn't look at the value chart. He looks at the players who will be available.
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Old 04-10-2010, 05:41 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Pawnmower View Post
Odds of you sucking that same players nuts and making a post in a few months telling everyone how 'you knew he would be a stud":

Incredibly also 99.9%
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Old 04-10-2010, 05:49 PM   #25
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Eric Berry - 30%
Jimmy Clauson - 25%
Trent Williams - 20%(can play both OT spots is huge)
Dan Williams - 12%
Russell Okung - 12%
Brian Bulaga - 1%
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Old 04-10-2010, 07:42 PM   #26
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H5N1 just laughing at something funny but the NEG must mean the truth hurts. Go have a coors light.
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Old 04-10-2010, 07:43 PM   #27
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What are the odds of KC drafting specific players?
100%
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Old 04-10-2010, 08:06 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by threebag02 View Post
H5N1 just laughing at something funny but the NEG must mean the truth hurts. Go have a coors light.
did you see the smiley? it was done in jest. and **** coors light.
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Old 04-10-2010, 08:22 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by GoChiefs View Post
You can't assign arbitrary numbers to players like this. It has zero basis in reality.
My process isn't as evidence-based as patteeu's, but nonetheless I'm basing them on a Monte Carlo simulation model that examines combinations of potential choices based on past behavior and quantified media reports.
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Old 04-10-2010, 09:02 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by H5N1 View Post
did you see the smiley? it was done in jest. and **** coors light.
I hear the **** COORS light. It was also said in jest. I was always told coors light will make your asshole hurt.
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