Wondering the Playoff inclusion rate of the NFL's final unbeaten team

[alnorth]

updated

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=43):
3 - 9.3%
4 - 9.3%
5 - 14.0%
6 - 18.6%
7 - 11.6%
8 - 2.3%
9 - 9.3%
10 - 9.3%
11 - 4.7%
12 - 2.3%
13 - 2.3%
14 - 4.7%
16 - 2.3%
average - 7.35
median - 6

Conference champ (yes) (n=43): 74.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (yes) (n=22): 54.5%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=42):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.7%
Lost in Wild Card round - 11.9%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 21.4%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 9.5%
Lost in Wild Card round - 19.0%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 9.5%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3

Originally Posted by alnorth

Statistics!

Throwing out 1982. Anything involving # wins has to throw out 2010. Anything involving playoff performance has to throw out the 1970 Rams. For simplicity I am going to assume that teams seeded lower than #2 before the existence of the wild card round would have won in the wild card round.

Anything involving division champs might be a little screwed since it is easier to win a division when there are 4 of them, but what the hell, I'll include that anyway with that caveat.

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=42):
3 - 7.1%
4 - 9.5%
5 - 14.3%
6 - 19.0%
7 - 11.9%
8 - 2.4%
9 - 9.5%
10 - 9.5%
11 - 4.8%
12 - 2.4%
13 - 2.4%
14 - 4.8%
16 - 2.4%
average - 7.45
median - 6.5 (exactly half at or under 6/over 6 wins)

Conference champ (n=42): 73.8%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21): 52.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=41):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.9%
Lost in Wild Card round - 9.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 24.4%
Lost Conference championship - 14.6%
Lost Super Bowl - 24.4%
Won Super Bowl - 22.0%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=20):
Miss playoffs in current format - 10%
Lost in Wild Card round - 15%
Lost in Divisional round - 25%
Lost Conference championship - 15%
Lost Super Bowl - 25%
Won Super Bowl - 10%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3