Chiefs **** OFFICIAL comprehensive Chiefs playoff scenario thread **** - Page 13

**cdcox** · 08:16 PM

(DaFace's edit to add updated scenarios...)

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

Three ways into the playoffs:

1) we win out

2) we lose one and the chargers lose at least 1

3) We lose out, the chargers lose out, and the raiders lose next week to the Colts

**Bane** · 12-19-2010, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Arrowhead

What are the scenario on how we could get a first round bye?
Posted via Mobile Device

Build a time machine and go back to beat Indy and Houston.

**cdcox** · 12-19-2010, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Arrowhead

What are the scenario on how we could get a first round bye?
Posted via Mobile Device

One way would be to win out, and for Pittsburgh and Baltimore to lose out. Don't know if there are other ways.

milkman · 12-19-2010, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bane

Build a time machine and go back to beat Indy and Houston.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

One way would be to win out, and for Pittsburgh and Baltimore to lose out. Don't know if there are other ways.

I'm no mathmetician, but I think both scenarios above have about an equal chance.

**alnorth** · 12-19-2010, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Arrowhead

What are the scenario on how we could get a first round bye?
Posted via Mobile Device

mathematically possible, but incredibly unlikely.

NE has us even if they lose out and we win out, so forget #1.

Pittsburgh (conference) and Baltimore (common opponents) both have us on tiebreakers, so Pittsburgh must lose to both Carolina and Cleveland, and Baltimore has to lose to both Cleveland and Cincinatti.

If all that happens and we win out, we are #2 and get the bye.

**007** · 12-19-2010, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

I'm no mathmetician, but I think both scenarios above have about an equal chance.

**alnorth** · 12-19-2010, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

One way would be to win out, and for Pittsburgh and Baltimore to lose out. Don't know if there are other ways.

yep, confirmed

**Bane** · 12-19-2010, 08:43 PM

Sounds like the time machine is the path of least resistance.

**alnorth** · 12-19-2010, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bane

Sounds like the time machine is the path of least resistance.

what, you dont think those Browns looked pretty scrappy lately?

**Bane** · 12-19-2010, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

what, you dont think those Browns looked pretty scrappy lately?

Yeah but that good I just don't know.

**alnorth** · 12-19-2010, 08:50 PM

To put our chances in perspective, lets say the Chiefs have a generous 90% chance of winning each game, and the opponents of the Steelers/Ravens have a 30% chance of winning each game.

That puts us at about a 0.7% chance of getting the #2 seed and bye, and thats being wildly optimistic.

It aint happening, be happy that we might be alive in the wild card round with a game at Arrowhead.

**DaFace** · 12-19-2010, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

To put our chances in perspective, lets say the Chiefs have a generous 90% chance of winning each game, and the opponents of the Steelers/Ravens have a 30% chance of winning each game.

That puts us at about a 0.7% chance of getting the #2 seed and bye, and thats being wildly optimistic.

It aint happening, be happy that we might be alive in the wild card round with a game at Arrowhead.

For what it's worth, seedy's software puts it at 0.14%.

**007** · 12-19-2010, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

what, you dont think those Browns looked pretty scrappy lately?

Screw Cleveland. the Panthers are NOT winning.

**cdcox** · 12-19-2010, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

For what it's worth, seedy's software puts it at 0.14%.

My online software only simulates the season 5000 times. I used the version that runs 50,000 simulations and the odds are actually closer to 0.10%. I wouldn't want anyone's hopes to be unrealistically high.

**alnorth** · 12-19-2010, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

My online software only simulates the season 5000 times. I used the version that runs 50,000 simulations and the odds are actually closer to 0.10%. I wouldn't want anyone's hopes to be unrealistically high.

Let me say, that as a computer science major (who ultimately decided against being a programmer as a career), your skills in coding the ability to determine the common opponents tiebreaker in a simulation is very impressive to me. Well done, I salute you.

**DaFace** · 12-19-2010, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

My online software only simulates the season 5000 times. I used the version that runs 50,000 simulations and the odds are actually closer to 0.10%. I wouldn't want anyone's hopes to be unrealistically high.

That 0.04% just crushed my hopes and dreams.

12-19-2010, 08:43 PM	#187
Bane C.H.I.E.F.S Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: **** your face Casino cash: $10005055	Sounds like the time machine is the path of least resistance.
Posts: 12,621

12-19-2010, 08:50 PM	#190
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57156239	To put our chances in perspective, lets say the Chiefs have a generous 90% chance of winning each game, and the opponents of the Steelers/Ravens have a 30% chance of winning each game. That puts us at about a 0.7% chance of getting the #2 seed and bye, and thats being wildly optimistic. It aint happening, be happy that we might be alive in the wild card round with a game at Arrowhead. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130