**** OFFICIAL comprehensive Chiefs playoff scenario thread ****

[cdcox]

(DaFace's edit to add updated scenarios...)

Originally Posted by alnorth

Three ways into the playoffs:

1) we win out

2) we lose one and the chargers lose at least 1

3) We lose out, the chargers lose out, and the raiders lose next week to the Colts

[milkman]

Originally Posted by DaFace

That 0.04% just crushed my hopes and dreams.

I know, huh?

Damn you CD Cox!

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Let me say, that as a computer science major (who ultimately decided against being a programmer as a career), your skills in coding the ability to determine the common opponents tiebreaker in a simulation is very impressive to me. Well done, I salute you.

Thanks. Some of the tiebreaker code is really clean.

Worse than the common opponents code was figuring out the logic control between tiebreakers extending up to 4 teams in a division or conference. When ties are broken, a team might graduate into a playoff seed or you may only eliminate one team and have to start the tiebreaker hierarchy all over again. That was brain buster in terms of how to do it efficiently.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by kstater

I wonder what would happen if Pete and Noswad had a child together.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by cdcox

My online software only simulates the season 5000 times. I used the version that runs 50,000 simulations and the odds are actually closer to 0.10%. I wouldn't want anyone's hopes to be unrealistically high.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

Someone (aside from me) has clearly been drinking tonight.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by kstater

I wonder what would happen if Pete and Noswad had a child together.

See Pawnmower.

[chasedude]

Even if this team doesn't make it to the playoffs, I'm still impressed. I've got fingers, toes, balls and nose hairs are all crossed hoping they make it in and win at least one game!

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

San Diego's last two games are Road games . SD is 2-4 road this year

KC's last two are home games . KC is 6-0 at home this year

We will win

[EPodolak]

I'm not sure which is more important - playing at home or playing on the road and ~not~ wearing the goofy red clown pants.

[JD10367]

Not for nothing but, given the youth of the Chiefs and this whole "new to winning" upswing, I'm not so sure you guys should want a first-round bye. There's something to be said for being on a roll and entering the playoffs hot. Unless you have massive teamwide injuries that really need a week off to heal, it might be just as well that they keep playing straight through.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

I just want home field advantage

[MOhillbilly]

Originally Posted by JD10367

Not for nothing but, given the youth of the Chiefs and this whole "new to winning" upswing, I'm not so sure you guys should want a first-round bye. There's something to be said for being on a roll and entering the playoffs hot. Unless you have massive teamwide injuries that really need a week off to heal, it might be just as well that they keep playing straight through.

i think the same way. that week off can give rookie playoff teams nosebleeds.

[mcan]

Originally Posted by DaFace

For what it's worth, seedy's software puts it at 0.14%.

do you mean 14%

Or is it really .14% as in < 1%

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by mcan

do you mean 14%

Or is it really .14% as in < 1%

The latter.

[WebGem]

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

San Diego's last two games are Road games . SD is 2-4 road this year

KC's last two are home games . KC is 6-0 at home this year

We will win

Ehhh, that's probably not the way to look at it. I'd say we definitely have a better chance of losing a game than does SD. That being said, I do think we will win out.