**** OFFICIAL comprehensive Chiefs playoff scenario thread ****

[cdcox]

(DaFace's edit to add updated scenarios...)

Originally Posted by alnorth

Three ways into the playoffs:

1) we win out

2) we lose one and the chargers lose at least 1

3) We lose out, the chargers lose out, and the raiders lose next week to the Colts

[Bewbies]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I vote we go for the win. Momentum for this team will be huge going into the playoffs.

Me too.

[Bewbies]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Pittsburgh's OL is so horrible, they just ran for 147 yards against the Jets, who some here claim are impossible to run on.

Is your point here that the Jets aren't as good as they say, or that the Steelers horrible line is actually good?

[InChiefsHeaven]

Since we can't assume that the CHargers are going to lose their last 2 (and they just won't) then the team needs to just concentrate on winning period. Screw all the scenarios, they are meaningless if we just plain win out. I guarantee you even if the Raiders games was "meaningless" it's never meaningless to Chiefs fans. They will be balls out against the Raiders.

Just. Win. Baby...

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Bewbies

Is your point here that the Jets aren't as good as they say, or that the Steelers horrible line is actually good?

That the Jets are vulnerable against the run, even though statistically, they look strong.

[Bewbies]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

That the Jets are vulnerable against the run, even though statistically, they look strong.

Absolutely.

[WebGem]

Originally Posted by InChiefsHell

Since we can't assume that the CHargers are going to lose their last 2 (and they just won't) then the team needs to just concentrate on winning period. Screw all the scenarios, they are meaningless if we just plain win out. I guarantee you even if the Raiders games was "meaningless" it's never meaningless to Chiefs fans. They will be balls out against the Raiders.

Just. Win. Baby...

This. Sort of.

These percentage things are sort of reeruned when there's 2 weeks left and it's pretty damn likely SD is gonna win out. We have to win two games, who cares what some system says the overall probability is?

I don't agree however about the meaningless Raiders game. If SD does somehow lose in Cinci and we clinch on Sunday, then we would very likely rest some guys during at least part of the Raiders game. It wouldn't make sense to play as hard as they can just to win the game when they don't need to. I personally would think it's more funny that the Raiders went 6-0 in the West and the Chiefs won it than if we tied the season series by winning a meaningless game.

[alnorth]

We have been eliminated from the #2 seed. We'll either be the #3 seed, #4 seed, or out.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by ChiefsFan5840

These percentage things are sort of reeruned when there's 2 weeks left and it's pretty damn likely SD is gonna win out. We have to win two games, who cares what some system says the overall probability is?

A lot of people do, including many in this thread. We've got 7 days to kill between games to wonder about odds, and a good robust probability system can be helpful for wagers.

Just because you are unable to figure out a use for something doesn't make it "reeruned"

[WebGem]

Originally Posted by alnorth

A lot of people do, including many in this thread. We've got 7 days to kill between games to wonder about odds, and a good robust probability system can be helpful for wagers.

Just because you are unable to figure out a use for something doesn't make it "reeruned"

What am I not able to figure out a use for? I have a bachelors degree in actuarial science, I'm not exactly an idiot when it comes to numbers. I just think most of these projection system sites like AccuScore and what not are way off because of things they don't include. With more weeks left I would say they are more accurate, but still not as much as a knowledgeable fan could use without looking so much at stats and just using their general feel. With 2 games left I'd say using your own judgement on a probability we win 2 games, or win 1 game is a lot better than reading a percentage off one of these sites that are based strictly off statistics.

[WebGem]

Originally Posted by alnorth

We have been eliminated from the #2 seed. We'll either be the #3 seed, #4 seed, or out.

Yeah and it really sucks because IMO the 4 best teams in the NFL come from 2 AFC divisions, which means we're stuck playing one of them. We got the magic of Arrowhead though.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by ChiefsFan5840

What am I not able to figure out a use for? I have a bachelors degree in actuarial science, I'm not exactly an idiot when it comes to numbers. I just think most of these projection system sites like AccuScore and what not are way off because of things they don't include. With more weeks left I would say they are more accurate, but still not as much as a knowledgeable fan could use without looking so much at stats and just using their general feel. With 2 games left I'd say using your own judgement on a probability we win 2 games, or win 1 game is a lot better than reading a percentage off one of these sites that are based strictly off statistics.

Cool. If you are trying to pull math nerd-rank, I guess I could mention that I have passed the 1st 4 exams and am sitting for 5 this spring. (CAS side) Not that it really matters.

You do not need to know every variable of a complex system to attempt to make accurate forecasts. We certainly dont have every aspect of the weather figured out, but the meteorologist still does a halfway-decent job telling me what will happen the next few days. Earthquake and hurricane catastrophe models probably dont have those probabilities down anywhere close to 100% either, but we still rely on them. How? Why? We identify a few variables, try to make predictions based on our imperfect knowledge, and see how well that model would have predicted the past. (For example, we have dozens of football seasons. How well would accuscore have done in predicting Week 13 20 years ago?) When a new event makes it apparent that there is a flaw in the model (accuscore begins to lose predictive power, an earthquake with a specific magnitude, epicenter, and regional damage occurs that the model does not show as reasonably possible) you revise the model.

You'll learn more about constructing actuarial models when you sit for exam C, if you havent already.

[WebGem]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Cool. If you are trying to pull math nerd-rank, I guess I could mention that I have passed the 1st 4 exams and am sitting for 5 this fall. (CAS side) Not that it really matters.

You do not need to know every variable of a complex system to attempt to make accurate forecasts. We certainly dont have every aspect of the weather figured out, but the meteorologist still does a halfway-decent job telling me what will happen the next few days. Earthquake and hurricane catastrophe models probably dont have those probabilities down anywhere close to 100% either, but we still rely on them. How? Why? We identify a few variables, try to make predictions based on our imperfect knowledge, and see how well that model would have predicted the past. (For example, we have dozens of football seasons. How well would accuscore have done in predicting Week 13 20 years ago?) When a new event makes it apparent that there is a flaw in the model (accuscore begins to lose predictive power, an earthquake with a specific magnitude, epicenter, and regional damage occurs that the model does not show as reasonably possible) you revise the model.

You'll learn more about constructing actuarial models when you sit for exam C, if you havent already.

I just finished the preliminary's this year but I had to do all 5. CAS doesn't have to take MLC, right? If you don't take MLC what is the 5th preliminary? Or is it just a module type thing? And I wasn't trying to pull math-nerd ranks, I was showing that I can apply it if I need to I just don't trust the numbers. Like when cdcox was telling us the Chargers had an 86% chance to win in each of their remaining 3 games. I just don't believe that and think it's way the hell too high.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by ChiefsFan5840

I just finished the preliminary's this year but I had to do all 5. CAS doesn't have to take MLC, right? If you don't take MLC what is the 5th preliminary? Or is it just a module type thing? And I wasn't trying to pull math-nerd ranks, I was showing that I can apply it if I need to I just don't trust the numbers. Like when cdcox was telling us the Chargers had an 86% chance to win in each of their remaining 3 games. I just don't believe that and think it's way the hell too high.

CAS accepts either MLC or 3L (3L is their own version of that half-exam, less life contingencies which are of limited use anyway for casualty actuaries, much heavier emphasis on statistics). CAS students can basically pick one or the other, depending on if they feel they are stronger on statistics or life con. Exam 5 is the first CAS upper-level exam (there are 5 cas upper-level exams, exams 5 through 9). No idea what the SOA is doing anymore, they seem to be going heavy with the modules.

[WebGem]

Originally Posted by alnorth

CAS accepts either MLC or 3L (3L is their own version of that half-exam, less life contingencies which are of limited use anyway for casualty actuaries, much heavier emphasis on statistics). CAS students can basically pick one or the other, depending on if they feel they are stronger on statistics or life con. Exam 5 is the first CAS upper-level exam (there are 5 cas upper-level exams, exams 5 through 9). Not idea what the SOA is doing anymore, they seem to be going heavy with the modules.

Oh okay, the only person I knew doing the CAS route moved to Chicago to work for Zurich NA a couple years ago and I lost contact with him so I don't know much about it. Good luck.

Just out of curiosity, put a percentage on the Chiefs making the playoffs. I say 65%. It's with a heavier weight on the possibility of SD losing a game than most people would have though.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by ChiefsFan5840

Just out of curiosity, put a percentage on the Chiefs making the playoffs. I say 65%.

same, about 2/3. Little over 50/50 that they win out, a little under 10% that chiefs win the division as a 10-6 team. Chargers about 1/3 chance of winning the division (ignoring their unlikely wild card scenarios), and the raiders chances are a rounding error.