**** OFFICIAL comprehensive Chiefs playoff scenario thread ****

[cdcox]

(DaFace's edit to add updated scenarios...)

Originally Posted by alnorth

Three ways into the playoffs:

1) we win out

2) we lose one and the chargers lose at least 1

3) We lose out, the chargers lose out, and the raiders lose next week to the Colts

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Vanilla Thunder

I guess we'll just have to win the division. What a shame.

yeah, its probably 3-4 seed or go home for us, with a slight chance at a 6 seed and some crazy lightning striking twice math needed for a 5 seed.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by cdcox

56% chance of winning the division and 62% chance overall of making the playoffs.

Now 56% chance of winning the division and 59% chance of making the playoffs.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Now 56% chance of winning the division and 59% chance of making the playoffs.

hah, so that one game between Baltimore and Houston cut our wild card chances in half.

[Hammock Parties]

I don't know why anyone even wants to think about a wildcard at this point.

We would get creamed like we did against the Chargers in a road playoff game. Probably even worse.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Gif Horse

I don't know why anyone even wants to think about a wildcard at this point.

We would get creamed like we did against the Chargers in a road playoff game. Probably even worse.

its another week of football. The alternative is probably shovelling snow.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by alnorth

its another week of football. The alternative is probably shovelling snow.

True.

I suppose getting creamed by a real team might force some hands in the offseason.

[BossChief]

In this league, you learn a lot about your team in the playoffs...in wins and losses.

If we can make the playoffs, no matter where or who we play, I hope to God we make it.

It will be a good experience for these kids NO MATTER WHAT

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Right. If the game was 3:1, it wouldn't be 300 because of the vig. Betting $100 to win $300 is 3:1.

My bad. I was looking off an old spreadsheet and read it wrong.

A money line of +300 is a 75% chance of winning. Vegas seldom goes 90% but 80% is fairly common.

And the vig is factored into the line. That's why there is a difference in $ amounts on the money line for the favorite and the dog.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by alnorth

hah, so that one game between Baltimore and Houston cut our wild card chances in half.

Yep. It is amazing how a single play in some random Monday night game could be the difference between the Chiefs making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. The tiebreakers are kind of arbitrary. They should just have pre-playoffs for teams that end up tied, or go by point differential or something else teams could strive for during the season.

[Wallcrawler]

Im still trying to figure out why this team should be in the playoffs, when they cant leave Arrowhead without getting their asses kicked up between their shoulderblades by teams they should not only play tough against, but should probably win against.

Denver and SD have decent home field advantage, thats a given. But to get smoked by 25 and 31 points respectively, thats inexcusable.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by ChiefsFan5840

They aren't QBs, that could make a difference. I don't see how you can be 80% sure of that. I hope they don't put a far from 100% Cassel in, I really don't. I think Brodie could play a lot better vs STL than he did vs SD. If Cassel is close to or at 100% then yes it's an obvious go, but I don't see how that's 80% for sure. You do realize he has to be ready in time to practice, right? He can't just show up on Sunday and play without practicing all week.

Edit: I just saw the 2nd person you said is Roethlisberger. Yeah he's a QB, and I believe the game he played in was 14 days after the emergency appendectomy. That's a longer period of time than Cassel's situation, and Roethlisberger is the quickest time in NFL history for a QB to play in a game after one. I'm gonna assume Roethlisberger is a lot tougher than Cassel and guess Cassel doesn't play this Sunday. However, the Chiefs need him a lot worse than Pittsburgh needed Ben in a week 2 game, so who knows. I hope Matt plays, I just don't think it's that likely. Definitely not 80%, not even close to that right now, we know nothing.

Roethlisberger played 10 days after his appendectomy.

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by Wallcrawler

Im still trying to figure out why this team should be in the playoffs, when they cant leave Arrowhead without getting their asses kicked up between their shoulderblades by teams they should not only play tough against, but should probably win against.

Denver and SD have decent home field advantage, thats a given. But to get smoked by 25 and 31 points respectively, thats inexcusable.

IIRC, Arizona got their butts handed to them on 2 or 3 occasions towards the end of the regular season, and were pretty fortunate to even slide into the playoffs a couple of years ago. And it took all the Steelers had... and some luck... for the Steelers to win the Super Bowl against those same Cardinals.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by ceebz

Chiefs win @ St. Louis and I'm confident they'll win out. This is a completely different team at home.

If we win at St Louis I think we win out in a very impressive way. The St LouiS game is the only one that concerns me and even then not so much.

[The Bad Guy]

Originally Posted by Wallcrawler

Im still trying to figure out why this team should be in the playoffs, when they cant leave Arrowhead without getting their asses kicked up between their shoulderblades by teams they should not only play tough against, but should probably win against.

Denver and SD have decent home field advantage, thats a given. But to get smoked by 25 and 31 points respectively, thats inexcusable.

The Browns beat the Patriots.
The Bengals beat the Ravens.
The Browns went into New Orleans and beat the Saints.

I don't know why people are truly shocked that we are a bad road team. It's like some of you wanted to predict 5 wins, and then be surprised that it's not a finished product yet when we win games. The Steelers aren't a good road team either, the Jets needed a few road miracles to beat bad teams like the Lions, Browns and Broncos.

If our record says we are good enough for the playoffs, I don't know why fans of a team that won 10 games in 3 years would pull the "we don't deserve it" BS card.

[|Zach|]

Originally Posted by The Bad Guy

The Browns beat the Patriots.
The Bengals beat the Ravens.
The Browns went into New Orleans and beat the Saints.

I don't know why people are truly shocked that we are a bad road team. It's like some of you wanted to predict 5 wins, and then be surprised that it's not a finished product yet when we win games. The Steelers aren't a good road team either, the Jets needed a few road miracles to beat bad teams like the Lions, Browns and Broncos.

If our record says we are good enough for the playoffs, I don't know why fans of a team that won 10 games in 3 years would pull the "we don't deserve it" BS card.

Yea, this touches on something. People love critiquing the Chiefs against some weird idea of a team that doesn't exist. When in reality. The best team in the NFL...the absolute best team is going to have serious holes in this team. A bad loss and a million reasons you could look at them and say "good teams don't [insert whatever small slice of the game sounds good at the time]