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Old 05-03-2013, 10:38 PM   #1
TomBarndtsTwin TomBarndtsTwin is offline
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Originally Posted by HMc View Post
If Manuel and Smith have the same "ceiling" as Bray, then the difference must be that they are much more likely to get there. Bray wasn't passed on >5 times by every single team because he is basically the same as Geno Smith - he fell out of the draft becuase he's evidently got the intellect of a young domestic animal.

Make no mistake about it, the likelihood that Bray wins more than 2 or 3 NFL games is miniscule. It will be a miracle if he shows anything at NFL level.
Agreed for the most part.

The reason Smith was drafted in the 2nd and Bray went undrafted has a lot more to do with the worst-case scenario, rather than the best.

But if the worst-case scenario plays itself out for both teams, who would you rather be? The Jets, who spent a second round pick on a guy that will never be more than average. Or the Chiefs, who signed an UDFA who is out of football in a couple years?

If the goal is always to obtain a "franchise" QB, which I believe it should be, then I would much rather be the Chiefs than the Jets.
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Old 05-03-2013, 10:45 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin View Post
Agreed for the most part.

The reason Smith was drafted in the 2nd and Bray went undrafted has a lot more to do with the worst-case scenario, rather than the best.

But if the worst-case scenario plays itself out for both teams, who would you rather be? The Jets, who spent a second round pick on a guy that will never be more than average. Or the Chiefs, who signed an UDFA who is out of football in a couple years?

If the goal is always to obtain a "franchise" QB, which I believe it should be, then I would much rather be the Chiefs than the Jets.
I think I'd rather be the team not relying on UDFA's to "beat the odds". Goddamnit man, this ISN'T "Rudy" for ****'s sake...
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Old 05-03-2013, 10:56 PM   #3
TomBarndtsTwin TomBarndtsTwin is offline
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I think I'd rather be the team not relying on UDFA's to "beat the odds". Goddamnit man, this ISN'T "Rudy" for ****'s sake...
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"Relying on" is a little strong, don't you think?

I think the Chiefs just took a shot on an UDFA and said 'what the hell, why not?'

You would prefer they spend a #1 pick on the 'best' QB in a sh*t QB class?

JaMarcus Russell says hello . . . .
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:00 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin View Post
"Relying on" is a little strong, don't you think?

I think the Chiefs just took a shot on an UDFA and said 'what the hell, why not?'

You would prefer they spend a #1 pick on the 'best' QB in a sh*t QB class?

JaMarcus Russell says hello . . . .
By all means NO. I'd prefer we keep our outstanding track record of success with other peoples cast-offs!
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Old 05-03-2013, 10:49 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin View Post
Agreed for the most part.

The reason Smith was drafted in the 2nd and Bray went undrafted has a lot more to do with the worst-case scenario, rather than the best.

But if the worst-case scenario plays itself out for both teams, who would you rather be? The Jets, who spent a second round pick on a guy that will never be more than average. Or the Chiefs, who signed an UDFA who is out of football in a couple years?

If the goal is always to obtain a "franchise" QB, which I believe it should be, then I would much rather be the Chiefs than the Jets.
That entirely contradicts the rest of your post.

Even if their ceilings are identical, Smith looks about 100 times more likely to reach it.

So you approve of signing undrafted QBs in the search of a franchise QB? And you prefer that to spending the ~40th pick on a guy that had am awful lot of 1st round noise about him? Seriously?
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:17 PM   #6
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That entirely contradicts the rest of your post.

Even if their ceilings are identical, Smith looks about 100 times more likely to reach it.

So you approve of signing undrafted QBs in the search of a franchise QB? And you prefer that to spending the ~40th pick on a guy that had am awful lot of 1st round noise about him? Seriously?
100x more likely, huh? You willing to place a bet in Vegas on those odds?

Ahhhhh, yes . . . . . the first round 'buzz'. There's that talk again. And yet not a single team picking in the first round selected him. Go figure.

No, I don't prefer the Chiefs go dumpster-diving to find their future franchise QB, but I'd rather them sign an UDFA like Bray than spend 1.1 on Jamarcus Russell Part Deux.

But that's just me . . . .
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:41 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin View Post
100x more likely, huh? You willing to place a bet in Vegas on those odds?

Ahhhhh, yes . . . . . the first round 'buzz'. There's that talk again. And yet not a single team picking in the first round selected him. Go figure.

No, I don't prefer the Chiefs go dumpster-diving to find their future franchise QB, but I'd rather them sign an UDFA like Bray than spend 1.1 on Jamarcus Russell Part Deux.

But that's just me . . . .
3 posts ago it was the Jets with the 39th pick..Now it's the 1.1.

The goalposts are shifting.

I'm fine with picking up Bray as a UDFA. Would have been fine with using the 34 on Smith. I think you are desperate to conclude that they did better than the jets, and will use all sorts of wierd non-reasoning to do so.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:52 PM   #8
TomBarndtsTwin TomBarndtsTwin is offline
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3 posts ago it was the Jets with the 39th pick..Now it's the 1.1.

The goalposts are shifting.

I'm fine with picking up Bray as a UDFA. Would have been fine with using the 34 on Smith. I think you are desperate to conclude that they did better than the jets, and will use all sorts of wierd non-reasoning to do so.
Okay, I'm going to say this again slowly . . . .

The Chiefs did not have a pick in the second round, therefore the only way they could have spent a first or second round pick on a QB would be to use 1.1.

We are having this conversation in the context of the CHIEFS, not the Jets, drafting a QB high in the draft.

I'm not sure why this is so hard to understand.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:59 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin View Post
Okay, I'm going to say this again slowly . . . .

The Chiefs did not have a pick in the second round, therefore the only way they could have spent a first or second round pick on a QB would be to use 1.1.

We are having this conversation in the context of the CHIEFS, not the Jets, drafting a QB high in the draft.

I'm not sure why this is so hard to understand.
Then why on earth did you bother posting this?

Quote:

If the goal is always to obtain a "franchise" QB, which I believe it should be, then I would much rather be the Chiefs than the Jets.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:18 AM   #10
TomBarndtsTwin TomBarndtsTwin is offline
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Then why on earth did you bother posting this?
You really need to go back in the thread and read my posts from earlier.
I explained my position very clearly:

Summary:

This is, for all intents an purposes, a weak QB class. Most NFL scouts concur with that assessment. Most scouts also believe Bray has a ceiling as high as ANYONE in this draft. But, obviously, his floor is much lower. Which is why he went undrafted.

Therefore, since the goal is to get a high ceiling guy and for him to realize his potential; I would much rather the Chiefs sign a guy like Bray as an UDFA, then draft a guy like Geno, who offers roughly the same ceiling, and additionally costs you a high draft pick. Further, since the Chiefs don't have a second round pick, the only way they could have drafted Geno would have been to spend 1.1 on him. And, IMO (and many other NFL scouts opinions), that would have been a HUGE reach and not good value for the pick.

If Geno was still sitting there in the 4th round and the Chiefs wanted to pull the trigger on him then, I could have lived with that also. But he wasn't and they didn't.

That's about as succinctly as I can explain my position. Again, if you need additional clarification, read back through the thread . . . .

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