**** OFFICIAL comprehensive Chiefs playoff scenario thread ****

[cdcox]

(DaFace's edit to add updated scenarios...)

Originally Posted by alnorth

Three ways into the playoffs:

1) we win out

2) we lose one and the chargers lose at least 1

3) We lose out, the chargers lose out, and the raiders lose next week to the Colts

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by DTchiefs58

If thats the case then why on the telecast last night on ESPN they went thru every division and teams that were eliminated from the WC but STILL allive for the division were blocked out in red. Im not saying it there is a good chance just saying that we r still allive for the WC

Historically, cdcox's software has been 100% accurate (to my knowledge), while the networks have been known to make quite a few mistakes. NFL tiebreakers are incredibly complex, so the networks often get it wrong when it gets down into the multi-way tie situations.

I guess I should clarify that seedy's software doesn't necessarily say that there are absolutely no situations where it could happen, so I guess technically there could be some crazy one out there. However, his software didn't come up with a way for us to make it in as a WC in 5,000 simulations of the last two weeks, so chances are, there aren't any.

[alnorth]

I also went ahead and ran cdcox's simulator several times, so we're talking tens of thousands of seasons at this point. Microscopic chance of a #2 seed and bye (under a tenth of a percent), about 49% chance of #3 seed, about 5% chance of a #4 seed, zero chance of a wild card. If we make the playoffs, we're probably hosting the 2nd wild card, which will most likely be the Jets. Oddly enough, the Chargers still apparently have a small chance at a wild card, so they must have a slightly more favorable tiebreaker position if they win out.

Thats what the machines say using a brute-force method. Humans are also usually clever enough to find what they are looking for if they are deliberately trying to find a goofy unlikely possibility, but no one has figured out a scenario, and I cant find one here either. There is definitely no 2-way possibility. The only 3-way possibility would be the chiefs and jags knocking out a 3rd team then the chiefs knocking out the jags, but I dont see how thats possible either.

[Hootie]

we won't be resting our players in week 17 regardless of what the Chargers do...

The Colts are going to beat the Raiders and the Colts have the #3 tiebreaker over us so we have to finish 11-5 to get the #3 seed...

(and yes, I'm assuming the Colts finish 10-6 and win their division...they're the Colts for crying out loud)

[Hootie]

and the best thing about that scenario would be this:

we get the 3...we'd likely face the Jets...that's a very winnable game at Arrowhead...

and then we'd advance to play Pitt...we get a bounce or two and win that game...

I honestly think we'd have a pretty good shot at hosting the AFC Championship game...Indy can beat New England...

I'm cheering for a Colts @ Chiefs AFC Championship Game...we can beat the Colts @ Arrowhead.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by The Meat Dragon

and the best thing about that scenario would be this:

we get the 3...we'd likely face the Jets...that's a very winnable game at Arrowhead...

and then we'd advance to play Pitt...we get a bounce or two and win that game...

I honestly think we'd have a pretty good shot at hosting the AFC Championship game...Indy can beat New England...

I'm cheering for a Colts @ Chiefs AFC Championship Game...we can beat the Colts @ Arrowhead.

So, the Chiefs haven't even played a team that currently has 10 wins, much less beat one... and they haven't beat a team that's currently over .500 since October, and you honestly think they have a pretty good shot at being a bounce or two away from the Super Bowl?


Seriously?

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

So, the Chiefs haven't even played a team that currently has 10 wins, much less beat one... and they haven't beat a team that's currently over .500 since October, and you honestly think they have a pretty good shot at being a bounce or two away from the Super Bowl?


Seriously?

well it may sound ridiculous, but the only stretch he's making is winning @ Pittsburgh.

We can win out in the regular season. We might not, but it would shock no one. If the Jets have to play us in Arrowhead, that game is winnable. The Jets could definitely beat us, but again it would shock no one if they dont.

I do think we get skunked @ Heinz Field, but who knows. We win that game in a crazy-ass fluke and Manning turns it on in the playoffs...

I'd expect to get paid off at least 10:1 in that wager (chiefs to host the AFC championship game, yes or no) if we finish the regular season as the #3 seed hosting the Jets, but it could happen.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by alnorth

well it may sound ridiculous, but the only stretch he's making is winning @ Pittsburgh.

We can win out in the regular season. We might not, but it would shock no one. If the Jets have to play us in Arrowhead, that game is winnable. The Jets could definitely beat us, but again it would shock no one if they dont.

I do think we get skunked @ Heinz Field, but who knows. We win that game in a crazy-ass fluke and Manning turns it on in the playoffs...

I'd expect to get paid off at least 10:1 in that wager (chiefs to host the AFC championship game, yes or no) if we finish the regular season as the #3 seed hosting the Jets, but it could happen.

Agreed.

I don't see us beating Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh. Not without a LOT of breaks.

As crazy as it sounds, we'd have a much better chance of beating NE on the road - we just matchup better against them. Plus, there are a couple of coaches on this staff that might make a difference in that game.

As it stands now, would you rather be the #3 seed, play the Jets, then probably Pittsburgh, or would you rather be the #4 seed, which presents a tougher WC matchup against Baltimore, but a better matchup in the Divisional Round should you win WCW?

[CaliforniaChief]

Originally Posted by The Meat Dragon

and the best thing about that scenario would be this:

we get the 3...we'd likely face the Jets...that's a very winnable game at Arrowhead...

and then we'd advance to play Pitt...we get a bounce or two and win that game...

I honestly think we'd have a pretty good shot at hosting the AFC Championship game...Indy can beat New England...

I'm cheering for a Colts @ Chiefs AFC Championship Game...we can beat the Colts @ Arrowhead.

I'm still praying we can win out, let alone see a scenario like this play out.

However, I actually think it sets up pretty well for the other teams in the AFC playoffs, being that either Baltimore (the 5) or Indy (the 4) match up pretty well against New England. Look at what the Ravens did to them last time they played at the Razor in the playoffs.

[ReynardMuldrake]

We beat Pittsburgh last year.

[ReynardMuldrake]

Originally Posted by The Meat Dragon

and the best thing about that scenario would be this:

we get the 3...we'd likely face the Jets...that's a very winnable game at Arrowhead...

and then we'd advance to play Pitt...we get a bounce or two and win that game...

I honestly think we'd have a pretty good shot at hosting the AFC Championship game...Indy can beat New England...

I'm cheering for a Colts @ Chiefs AFC Championship Game...we can beat the Colts @ Arrowhead.

That would actually be a plausible scenario. And I'm stoked to think about it.

Hell, I'm excited to be thinking about the playoffs at all.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by ceebz

Chiefs win @ St. Louis and I'm confident they'll win out. This is a completely different team at home.

[Bewbies]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Agreed.

I don't see us beating Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh. Not without a LOT of breaks.

As crazy as it sounds, we'd have a much better chance of beating NE on the road - we just matchup better against them. Plus, there are a couple of coaches on this staff that might make a difference in that game.

As it stands now, would you rather be the #3 seed, play the Jets, then probably Pittsburgh, or would you rather be the #4 seed, which presents a tougher WC matchup against Baltimore, but a better matchup in the Divisional Round should you win WCW?

Pittsburgh's o-line is horrible, and without Polamalou that D isn't nearly as good. If he were out I'd like our chances a lot, lot more.

[cdcox]

As a far as the WC scenarios, the game space is huge 2^32. My software was predicting that the Steelers had clinched a playoff birth last week, but none of the reporting services were showing that the Steelers had clinched. 5000 simulations were not enough to find it, even when I set the Steelers to lose the rest of their games. I eventually found the scenario by which the Steelers would miss the playoffs and when I moved my sliders accordingly, my software made the correct prediction.

So I'm not saying that there is no way we can make the playoffs by a WC, but the chances must be impossibly small. We can increase the power of the simulations forcing the Chiefs to split their last two games. So every simulation is one in which the Chiefs finish 10-6.

Let's also move the Chiefs SOV and SOS up by having Arizona beat Dallas. That is the only game I can easily identify that would help the Chiefs while hurting other teams.

I'm also going to set all sliders of remaining games to 0.5 to evenly sample all of the remaining possibilities.

Any WC scenario must also involve some combinations of wins and losses between the Pats, Jets, Pittsburgh, Ravens, Jax, and Colts. Each of these teams plays 2 independent games, so that is a total of 12 games.

2^12 = 4096 different outcomes. That is a reasonable number of simulations.

Now if we need common games, SOV or SOS to go our way, that would need more simulations than 4096. Maybe a lot more. But I ran 30,000 simulations for each way in which the Chiefs could go 10-6 (beating Tenn or beating Oak) and did not find a single instance in which we made the WC. Still not proof that ESPN was wrong, but I would like to hear the scenario by which we got a WC birth before I believe it.

[cdcox]

This site also says that we are alive for the WC, but doesn't give any details. I might look at it again later in a logic driven way. This is kind of bugging me now.

http://seatgeek.com/blog/nfl/afc-pla...ture-explained

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by cdcox

As a far as the WC scenarios, the game space is huge 2^32. My software was predicting that the Steelers had clinched a playoff birth last week, but none of the reporting services were showing that the Steelers had clinched. 5000 simulations were not enough to find it, even when I set the Steelers to lose the rest of their games. I eventually found the scenario by which the Steelers would miss the playoffs and when I moved my sliders accordingly, my software made the correct prediction.

So I'm not saying that there is no way we can make the playoffs by a WC, but the chances must be impossibly small. We can increase the power of the simulations forcing the Chiefs to split their last two games. So every simulation is one in which the Chiefs finish 10-6.

Let's also move the Chiefs SOV and SOS up by having Arizona beat Dallas. That is the only game I can easily identify that would help the Chiefs while hurting other teams.

I'm also going to set all sliders of remaining games to 0.5 to evenly sample all of the remaining possibilities.

Any WC scenario must also involve some combinations of wins and losses between the Pats, Jets, Pittsburgh, Ravens, Jax, and Colts. Each of these teams plays 2 independent games, so that is a total of 12 games.

2^12 = 4096 different outcomes. That is a reasonable number of simulations.

Now if we need common games, SOV or SOS to go our way, that would need more simulations than 4096. Maybe a lot more. But I ran 30,000 simulations for each way in which the Chiefs could go 10-6 (beating Tenn or beating Oak) and did not find a single instance in which we made the WC. Still not proof that ESPN was wrong, but I would like to hear the scenario by which we got a WC birth before I believe it.

I have faith in your software. I even tried to look at what would happen with ties and couldnt figure out a single possibility involving ties galore where we win a wild card. Until proven otherwise with any scenario, you are right, and the entire sports media is wrong: we have been eliminated from the wild card.