Chiefs **** OFFICIAL comprehensive Chiefs playoff scenario thread **** - Page 19

**cdcox** · 08:16 PM

(DaFace's edit to add updated scenarios...)

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

Three ways into the playoffs:

1) we win out

2) we lose one and the chargers lose at least 1

3) We lose out, the chargers lose out, and the raiders lose next week to the Colts

**cdcox** · 12-24-2010, 01:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsFan5840

Oh okay, the only person I knew doing the CAS route moved to Chicago to work for Zurich NA a couple years ago and I lost contact with him so I don't know much about it. Good luck.

Just out of curiosity, put a percentage on the Chiefs making the playoffs. I say 65%.

My software says 52.5%
Football Outsiders has it at 54.9%
Accuscore has it at 86%, but that is ridiculously high. Plus their tiebreakers aren't programmed correctly. I don't consider them to be serious about their craft.

A couple of years ago, Don Bank, a professional journalist with SI gave his "gut feel" about the chances of each team making the playoffs at somewhere between the half-way and 3/4 mark. The odds per playoff spot didn't even add to 100%. So, having a rigorous system definitely improves your odds. Having a computer to evaluate scenarios definitely increases prediction skill.

My best moment was calling the Chiefs draft order 24-hours before the NFL did. Close follow up was correctly describing the exact scenario under which the Chiefs could make the playoffs in 2006.

Worst moment was calling the Broncos the division champs in week 6 last year. But overall, the software leads me in the right direction far more often than it leads me astray. Actuarial science is all about managing risk, and you are far better off with a quantitative model than without one.

WebGem · 12-24-2010, 01:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Worst moment was calling the Broncos the division champs in week 6 last year.

You mean you didn't predict them to finish with the same record as the 0-6 Titans?

**cdcox** · 12-24-2010, 01:24 AM

My breakdown is about a 41% chance the Chiefs will win out and an 11% chance the Chiefs and Chargers will both drop a game.

**cdcox** · 12-24-2010, 01:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsFan5840

You mean you didn't predict them to finish with the same record as the 0-6 Titans?

No, but nobody else did either.

WebGem · 12-24-2010, 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

No, but nobody else did either.

My prediction when they were 6-0 was 6-10 and when the titans were 0-6 my prediction was IDGAF. I was pretty close at least.

**alnorth** · 12-24-2010, 01:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

My breakdown is about a 41% chance the Chiefs will win out and an 11% chance the Chiefs and Chargers will both drop a game.

Ouch. That implies about 64% per game. I was thinking ~75%

**cdcox** · 12-24-2010, 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

Ouch. That implies about 64% per game. I was thinking ~75%

About 57% against the Titans and 72% against the Raiders. Good news is that Vegas has us at about 69% over the Titans.

WebGem · 12-24-2010, 01:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

Ouch. That implies about 64% per game. I was thinking ~75%

75% is the number I was thinking for each home game too. I was thinking a little smaller at first (not much) but I really do believe that the home field is THAT big of a deal.

**cdcox** · 12-24-2010, 01:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsFan5840

75% is the number I was thinking for each home game too. I was thinking a little smaller at first (not much) but I really do believe that the home field is THAT big of a deal.

For some reason, HFA seems to be a much bigger deal for the Chiefs than for most other teams, going all the way back to Marty's first days.

WebGem · 12-24-2010, 01:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

For some reason, HFA seems to be a much bigger deal for the Chiefs than for most other teams, going all the way back to Marty's first days.

Well, for September - December, yeah.

**alnorth** · 12-26-2010, 03:24 PM

If the Raiders win, the Colts are eliminated from the #3 seed, and we'll be either #3 or out.

If the Bengals win, the Chiefs are the AFC West champs at #3 or #4.

BWillie · 12-26-2010, 03:40 PM

Could chiefs still get a wildcard spot?

**cdcox** · 12-26-2010, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie007

Could chiefs still get a wildcard spot?

No.

GoHuge · 12-26-2010, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

No.

Yeah the Wild Card will come down to Pittsburgh, Jets, or Baltimore. All are 8-3 in conference play and we are 6-5. If the Chargers lose and Raiders win the AFC playoff teams will be set. Will have to wait till next week for the actual seedings to be set though.

Marcellus · 12-26-2010, 05:59 PM

100% Baby!

12-24-2010, 01:24 AM	#273
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $-648231	My breakdown is about a 41% chance the Chiefs will win out and an 11% chance the Chiefs and Chargers will both drop a game.
Posts: 46,037

12-26-2010, 03:24 PM	#281
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57156239	If the Raiders win, the Colts are eliminated from the #3 seed, and we'll be either #3 or out. If the Bengals win, the Chiefs are the AFC West champs at #3 or #4. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130

12-26-2010, 03:40 PM	#282
BWillie Are you ready to Rumble? Join Date: Apr 2006 Casino cash: $-1578759	Could chiefs still get a wildcard spot?
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12-26-2010, 05:59 PM	#285
Marcellus Diablo Negro Join Date: Sep 2003 Casino cash: $-597338	100% Baby!
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