What's with the Thigpen fixation?

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Since 2000:

2000: # of QBs: 12.
QBs taken out of the first round: 11.
Successful QBs out of first round: 2.

2001: # of QBs 11
QBs taken out of the first round: 10
Successful QBs out of first round 1 (Drew Brees, taken in the first pick of the second round)

2002: # of QBs: 15
QBs taken out of the first round: 13
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 1 (David Garrard...wow)

2003: # of QBs: 13
QBs taken out of the first round: 11
Successful QBs taken out of the first round: 0

So, in those four years, we have 51 QBs taken, 45 of which were out of the first round. Of those 45, 3 were decent QBs, 1 was a Hall of Famer.

Clearly, a success rate of 8.9% is better than 33%, especially given that players in other positions never bust, like you know, left tackle.

If anyone else wants to do '04-'08, feel free.

While those numbers are compelling and no doubt first round QBs succeed at a higher clip because they are rated by scouts to be the top QBs in a given draft, you have to realize that you're dealing with a severely, severely skewed sample.

How many 4th round picks could have played as poorly as Eli Manning or Harrington or Carr or Leftwich, etc... for as long as they did and still keep their job? The reason first round QBs tend to succeed at a far higher rate is because most of them are given 2-3 years to work everything out, whereas a 3rd round QB or lower would be lucky to get more than 6 games to prove himself.